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Chaos Feared in Pandemic Flu Plan
But by assuming a worst-case scenario _ up to 2 million U.S. deaths, and up to 40 percent of the work force off the job for several weeks _ the government hopes to have enough contingency plans to limit social and economic chaos if a severe pandemic strikes, and to energize private sector preparations.
A recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll found only one in 10 Americans was doing anything to plan for an outbreak.
  The Bush administration is releasing the bird-flu response plan, Wednesday, May 3, 2006, in Washington. The plan catalogs steps that the government, businesses and citizens should take if a deadly strain reaches U.S. shores. (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds) (Ron Edmonds - AP) Save & Share |
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The report takes important steps in improving the nation's readiness, said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota infectious disease specialist who has advised the federal government on flu preparations.
But, he said, the private sector provides 85 percent of essential services, such as food and medicines _ and it will take federal intervention to avoid "an incredible domino effect" of failed services if one of those cogs breaks down.
Osterholm cited closed-door discussions where oil refinery executives have said they physically can't operate if 30 percent of their workers are out. Communities' plans for shipping food would disintegrate if there's no fuel.
Up to 80 percent of medicines _ not just for flu, but for other diseases _ use at least some ingredients manufactured offshore, he added, putting production and delivery into question.
He said the report made clear that the private sector needs to plan, "but we need federal coordination around that."
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