U.S. Pressured Parties; Doubts Remain on Deal
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, May 6, 2006
With a prod from the United States, the government of Sudan and the biggest Darfur rebel faction signed a complex peace plan yesterday that diplomats and experts said would require careful implementation to ensure an end to a conflict that has left as many as 450,000 people dead and 2 million homeless.
Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick, who pushed the parties to an agreement during three days and nights of almost continuous negotiations in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, warned of the tough task ahead in a conference call with reporters.
"Do I hope there will be a significant decline in violence? Yes. Can I be certain? No," he said. The agreement is "an opportunity for peace," but Darfur "is going to remain a dangerous place."
The peace agreement seeks to dismantle marauding militias, fold thousands of rebel forces into the national army and pave the way to wealth and power-sharing between the central government and an impoverished area the size of France. Minni Minnawi, the leader of the Sudan Liberation Army, a rebel militia, signed the accord shortly after learning that his younger brother had been killed in Darfur, presumably during a firefight. Under the agreement, a cease-fire will go into effect in seven days.
Two other rebel groups -- a rival faction of the SLA and the smaller Justice and Equality Movement -- walked out of the talks, though a splinter group of one of the factions later presented a letter to mediators saying it supported the accord. Zoellick said the failure to win support from all of the rebels "certainly poses dangers," but he said he hoped the momentum generated by the agreement would persuade doubters to eventually sign on.
The conflict broke out in early 2003 when two African rebel groups attacked police stations and military outposts in Darfur. The United Nations and human rights groups accuse the Arab-led central government of supporting the militiamen, called the Janjaweed, to crush the rebellion. About 2,000 villages have been destroyed across Darfur, and critics of the agreement said it does not do enough to ensure compensation to victims. Both sides in the conflict have repeatedly broken previous agreements.
This agreement comes at a critical moment in the Darfur conflict, which is growing more chaotic, spawning more than 12 rebel groups on the lawless border between Chad and Sudan, banditry and a flood of weapons and fighters who are displacing civilians as far away as the Central African Republic.
In Chad, 60,000 people have been forced from their homes by Janjaweed incursions, along with several thousand in the Central African Republic.
Last week, the U.N. World Food Program announced that it had received only 32 percent of the $746 million in donations it had sought for its operations in Sudan. For that reason, it said, food rations to the camps would be cut in half.
U.S. officials say an accord is essential in order to persuade the Sudanese government to accept a U.N. peacekeeping force that would include logistical assistance from 400 to 500 NATO officers. The African Union currently has a 6,000-person force with a limited mandate in place. Many experts say it has been ineffective at stopping the fighting.
As the negotiations in Abuja stretched into the wee hours, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo told the rebel leaders that they would miss a historic opportunity if they did not accept the agreement.
Zoellick said that at some time between 2 and 4 a.m. Friday, he pulled out a letter from President Bush to Minnawi pledging to "strongly support" implementation of the deal and make sure anyone who broke it would be "held accountable" by the U.N. Security Council. Zoellick read the letter to the assembled gathering. One problem, he said, was that it was clear that many rebels had not read the tentative agreement and did not realize that issues they kept raising had already been addressed.
In the past year, Zoellick has become the administration's point man on Sudan, making four trips to Khartoum, the capital, and the Darfur region to press the two sides to agree. He also has shepherded efforts to implement another peace deal, signed last year, that ended a 20-year conflict between the Muslim government and rebels in the southern part of the country, which is largely animist and Christian.
The Darfur agreement is an amended version of a draft document produced earlier in the week by the African Union, which mediated the talks.
One faction that refused to sign is led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur, who founded the movement that launched the revolt against the government but has since split. The other rebel group is the Justice and Equality Movement.
"We won't sign it because the deal does not protect the people of Darfur. We don't have any real power in this deal," Ahmed Tugod, a JEM negotiator, said in an interview. "It only answers part of our problems, and we reject partial solutions."
Analysts yesterday were divided on the prospects for success.
"This is a feel-good agreement for the West," said Ted Dagne, a specialist in African affairs at the Congressional Research Service. "The people who could have been saved are dead, and those who are suffering in the camps are still there. What does this agreement mean to those who have perished? It means very little."
But Alex de Waal, an adviser to the African Union, said in a telephone interview from Abuja that the deal is "going to be very tough to implement" but "at least there is a prospect of getting somewhere." He said that donors "are getting sick of Darfur because there hasn't been any progress" but that a peace agreement may pave the way for more aid.
"Few doubt that Khartoum's Plan B is anything other than a large-scale military offensive. As local clashes escalate, more tribal militia mobilize. Darfurian elders warn of a Hobbesian war of all against all," de Waal said. "We are at the precipice of a regional maelstrom. Those who criticize the A.U.'s text and the efforts of Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick to clinch the deal must ponder that scenario."
Zoellick said the deal envisions careful sequencing to disarm the militias by October. The government is required to complete a plan within 37 days to move militiamen to restricted areas and remove heavy weapons. Every step will be verified by the African Union, and rebels will not assemble to demobilize until it is clear the Janjaweed have been disarmed, he said.
Correspondent Emily Wax in Nairobi and staff writer Bradley Graham contributed to this report.
View all comments that have been posted about this article.