Poll Puts Fenty and Cropp Neck and Neck

At last the results are in from the eagerly awaited 2006 pre-pre-primary George Washington University- Bernard Demczuk Supermarket Poll. And the big news is we're in for an exciting summer: The D.C. mayor's race is a statistical dead heat.

Or it would be a statistical dead heat had Demczuk bothered to calculate the statistical margin of error. Given that his poll is essentially an intensive exercise in that standby of local journalism, the man-on-the-street interview, such calculations are probably beside the point.

But that doesn't mean we can't learn something useful from those 625 interviews of actual Democratic voters scrupulously surveyed by Demczuk, a former chief lobbyist for former mayor Marion Barry , along with a bevy of GWU students. Indeed, in the 20 years since Demczuk started accosting people at CVS and Giant and Safeway and Eastern Market and the big chair and Whole Foods and Ben's Chili Bowl -- at least three spots in every ward -- he has compiled a record of eerie accuracy.

His August 1998 poll, for example, predicted that Mayor Anthony A. Williams would beat then-council member Kevin P. Chavous by 18 percentage points. The actual spread in the September primary was 17 points. Demczuk also correctly predicted that Williams would win in Wards 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6.

This poll is much earlier than that one, and even Demczuk, now GWU's assistant vice president for government affairs, is making no grand claims about its predictive powers. But he is nonetheless offering it to a wide array of political insiders.

So what's the bottom line?

Compared with previous surveys, Demczuk shows the race tightening between council Chairman Linda W. Cropp (D) and council member Adrian M. Fenty (D-Ward 4), with Fenty claiming 41 percent of those surveyed and Cropp taking 38 percent. Lobbyist Michael A. Brown , council member Vincent B. Orange Sr. (D-Ward 5) and former telecommunications executive Marie C. Johns were all in single digits, a finding mirrored in other polls.

"The election for mayor is too close to call for the two front-runners," Demczuk writes. "Both leading candidates are doing well in all neighborhoods and among all categories of voters."

Other nuggets of wisdom: "Voters in general feel satisfied with the Quality of Life in the city but do not think the city is heading in the right direction," Demczuk writes. "Blacks, in particular, are very angry at the lack of affordable housing, poor education and crime. . . . Whites, on the other hand, are generally pleased with the city [but] believe the city government must prevent the city from becoming all-rich and all-white.

"Both whites and blacks believe that affordable housing, education and crime are the top issues. The new stadium and building a new hospital virtually never surfaced as issues, not even in black neighborhoods."

Cropp Enlists Spokesman

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In other campaign news, Cropp has hired a new spokesman: Ron Eckstein is a former Washington reporter and Hill staffer who did time in North Carolina and Minnesota for Sen. John Kerry 's presidential campaign. A D.C. resident since 1995, Eckstein is making his debut in city politics fresh from the crushing disappointment of Lise Van Susteren 's aborted run for the U.S. Senate in Maryland.

Van Susteren, Greta's big sister, dropped out last month after failing to raise enough cash to challenge the big boys in the Maryland Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin and former congressman Kweisi Mfume , Eckstein said. Eckstein comes to Cropp on a recommendation from her pollster, Diane Feldman , who also worked for Van Susteren.