Frequent-Flier Miles: Harder to Redeem?

The frequent-flier program is 25 years old this month, and passengers are redeeming miles in record numbers. American Airlines, for example, says it made about 1.5 million awards last year. Continental handed out more than 1.6 million and, like other major U.S. airlines, reported that its "reward totals are tracking higher and higher year after year."

So why does it seem harder than ever to find a frequent-flier ticket for your hard-earned miles?

Jim Rodman of Washington, a Delta frequent flier, recently tried to cash in some of his accumulated miles for seats to the West Coast. Nothing was available during a two-week period for a 25,000-mile minimum round trip domestically (the standard with most airlines for "restricted" or "saver" awards). Instead, Rodman said, he had to lay out 50,000 miles for an "unrestricted" award.

His experience is increasingly typical, say experts such as Tim Winship, editor of FrequentFlier.com, a site for mile hounds. It's not so much that fewer seats are being given away-- although that seems to be going on at some airlines, says Winship. The bigger problem: more competition for available seats.

Frequent fliers on the world's airlines are holding an estimated 15 trillion frequent-flier miles, says Winship, and more are being earned by the second. "You can get frequent-flier miles for just about anything except sneezing," he says. Many savvy travelers have affinity credit cards that earn them miles for every purchase. Some lending companies throw in miles with a new mortgage. You can even get them by redeeming cereal box tops.

Moreover, more people are rushing to cash in their miles these days -- some because they worry the airline could go out of business, others because of high fares.

If airlines were expanding, the increased competition for seats wouldn't be a big problem. But consolidation is the trend, says analyst Henry Harteveldt of Forrester Research. There will be 4 percent fewer domestic flights this summer than last and 4.6 percent fewer seats, according to projections by eSkyGuide, an online flight direct-ory. For international flights from the States, the projection is only 1 percent more than last year, despite an apparent increased appetite.

Still, loads of miles are being redeemed. But those numbers don't reveal what consumers really want to know: What are the odds of cashing in my miles for a place I want to go, when I want to go there?

Internal surveys show that American Airlines passengers were able to get a free ticket to the destination they were looking for 80 to 90 percent of the time, and on the date they preferred about 65 to 70 percent of the time, says Kurt Stache, president of AAdvantage Marketing Programs. Judging from anecdotal evidence, such as passenger complaints, Winship says he doubts that such levels of success are true industry-wide.

But getting a freebie isn't hopeless -- even during the busy summer travel season, and even when using the minimal number of miles. That's what the Travel section discovered in a recent test of several airlines' programs. We set out to redeem miles on their Web sites, requesting a ticket from Washington airports to popular destinations on arbitrarily chosen dates in July and August.

The results:

· American Airlines. We tried for a free trip from Reagan National to Grand Cayman Island in the Caribbean, and our return date was available for a "saver" price of 30,000 miles. But the date we wanted to leave, Aug. 9, wasn't available for the minimum number of miles. However, when we checked the box saying we were flexible, we could get a "saver" ticket if we agreed to leave one day later.