In Speech, A Balancing Act of Policy And Politics

(Photos By Sarah L. Voisin -- The Washington Post)

Polling data underscore that immigration is a political issue whose impact stretches far beyond the states on the Mexican border, igniting passions in the Rocky Mountain West, the farm belt in the Midwest, and wherever there are poultry or packing plants. Passions run deepest among those alarmed by what they see as a flood tide of illegal immigrants and by what they fear is a movement that is changing the culture and identity of the country.

Those who say immigration is the issue upon which they are likely to base their vote in November disapprove of the kind of comprehensive plan favored by Bush and strongly support sending all illegal immigrants back to their home countries. They are both Republicans and Democrats, they tend to be less educated and less affluent, and many of them are older than 65, surveys suggest.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who with McInturff conducts the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, said that makes appealing to them exceptionally attractive for a Republican Party worried about minimizing its losses in November. "You look at this group and say, 'We can motivate our base, we can pick up an important group of old Americans . . . and maybe we can begin to cut down the differential' "in November, he said.

But the stakes are even greater on the other side, more now than even a few months ago. The House bill has inflamed opinion within the Hispanic community and mobilized a nascent political movement, one that over time will grow in size and strength as younger Latinos begin to register and vote in larger and larger numbers. Their political allegiance is now up for grabs, and the great danger that Bush and his advisers see in a stalemate is that the Democrats will be able to claim much of that vote.

"It's become an emotional issue," said Sergio Bendixen, who has polled extensively on Latino issues. "It's no longer an immigration issue, it's whether the United States welcomes Hispanics, whether they appreciate the contribution of Hispanics."

Political strategists may debate which of those forces could be more important in deciding close races in November -- the anti-illegal-immigrant activists who were encouraged by conservative talk radio and rallied behind the Minuteman movement, which sprang up as a citizen border security corps, or the huge throngs of immigrant supporters who were mobilized by Hispanic radio and protested in the streets last month. But there is little disagreement that in the longer term, a party seen as hostile to immigrants, legal or illegal, could pay a stiff price.

The negative role model cited universally is former California governor Pete Wilson (R), who used the anti-illegal-immigration issue to win reelection in 1994 only to see his party suffer in subsequent elections. "California went from being a swing state to a solid Democratic state, mainly because of the overwhelming support of Hispanics," Bendixen said.

Bush's instincts on immigration are well known and long stated, but his political standing has reduced his leverage just as the congressional debate is nearing its most difficult moment. White House officials believe that the prime-time address reinserts the president when he is needed most, but his most challenging test will come later this summer, when House and Senate negotiators are likely to try to compromise their differences. Juggling short- and long-term political goals will make his task all the more difficult.