Colombian Presidential Elections | May 28, 2006

What are Colombians voting for?

President Alvaro Uribe is running for reelection. He has built a formidable lead in the polls on the strength of hard-line security policies that have halved kidnappings and reduced homicides in one of the most violent countries in the world.

Who are the candidates?

Uribe's two leading rivals are Horacio Serpa of the social-democratic Liberal Party, who has run for president twice before, and Carlos Gaviria of the emerging leftist political party, the Democratic Independent Pole. Opinion surveys have recently shown Gaviria slightly ahead of Serpa, but both candidates lag far behind Uribe.

What are the key issues?

Uribe emphasizes his "Democratic Security" program aimed at reducing crime and the controlling armed insurgencies by the FARC and right-wing paramilitaries. Gaviria and Serpa emphasize establishing peace by addressing social inequality. On the economy, Uribe advocates a free-trade agreement with the United States, which his rivals oppose. They advocate a bigger state role in the reduction of poverty.

Who is expected to win?

Surveys show Uribe as the likely winner. If he wins more than 50 percent of the vote he will be automatically reelected. If he gets less than 50 percent of the vote and is forced into a runoff, it would be regarded as a major blow to U.S. influence in the region. If Gaviria finishes ahead of Serpa, the future of the centrist Liberal Party will be called into question.

Why is Uribe so popular?

Alvaro Uribe(Inaldo Perez - AP)

Most Colombians agree Uribe has made the country more secure. He has stepped up the fight against guerrilla insurgents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), while offering amnesty to those who lay down their arms. He has sought to demobilize the country's powerful right-wing paramilitary organizations, offering their leaders lenient sentencing for human rights abuses if they confess to their crimes and surrender drug trafficking profits.

Horacio Serpa(Jose Miguel Gomez - X00190)

Opponents say Uribe's security policies coddle the paramilitaries, undermine democracy and condone human rights violations. Human rights groups report widespread extrajudicial executions carried out by the security forces, killings of civilians by armed opposition groups and paramilitaries and the forced displacement of civilian communities.

What are U.S. interests in Colombia?

Carlos Gaviria(Fernando Vergara - AP)

The United States seeks to reduce the flow of illicit drugs from Colombia, the source of 80 percent of cocaine to the United States. Washington provides Colombia about $750 million in aid a year, most of which goes to the military for counter-drug and counter-guerrilla operations. The United States seeks to combat three armed groups that have been designated as terrorist organizations: the FARC, the leftist National Liberation Army, and the right-wing paramilitary group, the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia. The Bush administration would also like to reach a free-trade agreement which would open Colombian market to U.S. business.

What impact will the election have on the region?

Uribe is the anti-Hugo Chavez. The Harvard-educated former mayor of Medellin is the Bush administration's most ardent ally in Latin America. Unlike the president of neighboring Venezuela, Colombia's chief of state repudiates the politics of populism and charisma. The candidate of the Conservative Party, Uribe projects the political personality of a hands-on manager with a taste for hard work, personal austerity and emotional reserve.

If Uribe wins, the Bush administration would likely embrace him as a positive model for other Latin American countries and seek congressional approval for the free-trade agreement he seeks.

Sources: Staff and Wire Reports