Analysis: Elections Snarl Immigration Bill

U.S. Border Patrol agent Gus Soto detains a group of illegal immigrants near Arivaca, Ariz. on Friday, May 26, 2006. (AP Photo/Khampha Bouaphanh) (Khampha Bouaphanh - AP)

The president stressed his commitment to border enforcement. Then he called for a "rational middle ground" when it came to the illegal population. That approach, he said, "recognizes that there are differences between an illegal immigrant who crossed the border recently and someone who has worked here for many years, and has a home, a family, and an otherwise clean record."

The White House followed up by sending top political aide Karl Rove to meet with House Republicans twice in two weeks.

Rep. James Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., who will lead House bargainers in any compromise talks with the Senate, said fellow Republicans had "jumped all over Rove. And they said the president is not where the American people are at."

That was mild coming from Sensenbrenner, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. "Regardless of what the president says, what he is proposing is amnesty," he said several days ago.

Eager to assist the president, the Republican National Committee on Friday circulated a memo by Matthew Dowd, a political strategist with close ties to Bush.

"The comprehensive approach that emphasizes both security and compassion is unifying, not polarizing. It is supported by Republicans, independents and Democrats," it said. "Furthermore, majorities of Hispanics back it."

Directly taking on Sensenbrenner and other GOP critics, Dowd said internal party polling shows voters "don't consider granting illegal status to those already here amnesty."

Sensenbrenner stressed his readiness to do his part to seek a compromise. So, too, did Sen. Arlen Specter, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. "Our leadership position as Republicans in on the line. I think that will weigh heavily" on the compromise effort, Specter, R-Pa., said shortly before the Senate approved its bill.

Still, Dowd's assessment of the national mood may not mean much to individual House Republicans, particularly with Bush's poll ratings at an ebb.

Most House districts are noncompetitive, safely Republican or Democrat.

Five months before elections, Democrats are likely to be more interested in courting Hispanics than in helping Republicans out of a political jam. The chief re-election threats to many GOP lawmakers come either from conservative primary opponents or disaffection among core supporters who stay home rather than vote in the fall.

Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., predicted Republicans would pay a price if they voted for anything like the Senate's bill. "Many of those who have stood for the Republican Party for the last decade are not only angry. They will be absent in November," he said.

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EDITOR'S NOTE _ David Espo is AP's chief congressional correspondent