Immigration Deal at Risk as House GOP Looks to Voters

"House members' elections are not periods with us, they're just commas," said Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-Minn.). "We keep our finger on the public pulse all the time, not just every six years."

Gutknecht, who represents a southern Minnesota district that is 93 percent white, rejected claims by McCain and others that it would be disastrous if Republicans, who control the White House and Congress, failed to strike a compromise this year. "It would give the administration time to demonstrate they are serious that they can defend the law," he said.

Rep. Heather A. Wilson, who represents a majority-minority district in New Mexico, is an exception among House Republicans. She voted against an earlier House GOP bill that made illegal immigration a felony and cracked down on illegal border crossings. Wilson, one of the top Democratic targets this fall, said she is torn over how to handle the illegal immigrants living here. She said she is open to a compromise that treats families with children born in the United States differently. These children, who are citizens, she said, "should not be held accountable for bad decisions their parents made." Her district is more than 40 percent Hispanic.

Shays, who represents an upscale, largely white swing district in Connecticut, said he informed GOP leaders of his opposition to Bush's path to citizenship after talking to local voters in a recent 18-stop tour. If anything, voters are growing more "adamant" in their opposition, he said. In an interview, he proposed allowing illegal immigrants a chance to stay and work but not become citizens, which many senators said would be a deal-killer.

This highlights the hurdles to a compromise. House Republicans appear inalterably opposed to any bill that paves the way for citizenship. They plan to name representatives to the House-Senate conference committee who share this view. They will fight for the security-only approach and are prepared to walk away from the conference if they don't get their way, according to GOP leadership aides.

On the other side, the fragile Senate coalition that passed a more comprehensive bill is held together by a common belief that it would be unwise and unworkable to deal with the borders only and not solve the problem of what to do with the 11 million illegal immigrants living here today. The coalition will crumble if the House Republicans prevail, according to senators and aides.

The White House, led by Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove, has been lobbying House members to soften their position and expects that more moderate lawmakers would eventually side with Bush.

Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (Fla.), who is not known as an immigration hard-liner but is one of the party's most vulnerable incumbents, said there is virtually no chance of a compromise this year that includes a guest-worker program or a pathway to citizenship. Shaw said the politics of the issue are more mixed in his Fort Lauderdale district, which includes a large number of hospitality firms and other companies that rely on low-cost labor from illegal immigrants.

But he emphasized that Congress needs months, and perhaps years, of public hearings to determine the economic effects of legalizing millions of immigrants.

Another moderate, Chabot, said immigration was the only issue that came up during a tour of church festivals in his Cincinnati district a week ago, deepening his opposition to the Bush approach. "If you allow the folks here to stay, you're just encouraging more to come," Chabot said.

Some Democrats are feeling similar pressure. When the House voted on its get-tough bill that also made illegal immigration a felony, 13 of the 17 Democratic incumbents who face tough races sided with Republicans. "The folks I represent in Georgia are sick and tired of the fact that nothing's been done to stem the tide of illegal immigration," said Rep. John Barrow, who dismissed the Senate bill as "amnesty-light -- no matter what they try to call it." Still, many House Democrats are open to a Senate-style settlement.

Rep. John N. Hostettler (R-Ind.), a top Democratic target who represents a district so competitive it is known as the "bloody 8th," warned that if House Republicans do not oppose guest workers, temporary workers and anything "that looks like amnesty," they could very well lose the House.

"There are lot of people on Capitol Hill that have no clue what November is going to bring them on immigration," he said. "It could be something like a tidal wave that could benefit the Democrats simply because Republicans don't do the right thing. To survive through November, the folks up here [on Capitol Hill] are really going to have to understand the passion behind this."