By Edward Cody
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, June 2, 2006; A13
TAIPEI, Taiwan, June 1 -- President Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's ardent champion of independence, has been gravely wounded by a string of political missteps and mounting corruption allegations against his family, undermining his leadership and raising doubts about the remaining two years of his term.
In an unusual step, Chen announced Wednesday night that he was relinquishing command over domestic policies to his premier, Su Tseng-chang, and would stay out of his Democratic Progressive Party's political affairs, including campaigning. Chen said he was engaged in "deep reflection and reexamination" of his attitude toward the members of his entourage and family who are accused of wrongdoing, particularly a son-in-law jailed last week on charges of insider trading.
The opposition Nationalist Party, meanwhile, gathered 111 signatures on an impeachment motion in the Legislative Yuan, or parliament, amounting to nearly half the 225 members. Although falling well below the two-thirds majority necessary for impeachment, the campaign provided a forum for Chen's opponents, and some of his followers, to attack his credibility on a broad variety of issues, including the struggle to advance Taiwan toward independence.
"This is very serious," said Lin Cho-shui, a Legislative Yuan member from Chen's party and a firm believer in Taiwanese independence. "He can't be an effective leader anymore. His policies have not inspired a lot of confidence. If it were just his family members' problems, it would not be so serious, but there also have been political problems, particularly relations with the United States."
The sudden storm of scandal and accusations of bumbling leadership raised questions about what the unpredictable Chen might do to regain balance. Some analysts suggested he would become more prudent, scaling back efforts to push this self-ruled island toward formal independence. But others predicted a bold move to revive support among the many Taiwanese who believe that their homeland should be independent in law as well as fact despite China's resolve to absorb it into the mainland.
"Don't be surprised if he rises up out of all this," said Bikhim Hsiao, a Democratic Progressive Party legislator and strong Chen supporter. "He's in trouble, but he's not defeated."
Su Chi, a Nationalist member of the Legislative Yuan, suggested that Chen might try to radically alter the Taiwanese constitution to emphasize independence, then submit his proposal to a referendum in hopes of rallying public support on the nationalism issue, as he did in winning election in 2000 and 2004.
China and the United States have both warned against such a course, reminding Chen that he has repeatedly promised not to substantially change the constitution. In a recent interview, Chen pledged to follow legal procedure in changing the constitution, which requires him to submit any amendments to the legislature, where Nationalists hold a thin majority. But Su warned that Chen, a lawyer known for political sleight of hand, might find a way to circumvent that pledge despite the warnings from Beijing and Washington.
The crisis, which has been building for months, hit a peak after Chen's son-in-law, Chao Chien-ming, was taken into custody last week on charges that he bought stocks in the Taiwan Development Corp. after being tipped by a senior company official at a dinner party that it was about to receive a $300 million loan. On Thursday night, Chen's office announced the resignation of Ma Yung-cheng, a deputy secretary general of the presidential staff who faced allegations that he was involved with the same insider stock deal.
Reports have long circulated in Taipei, the capital, that Chen's wife, Wu Shu-chen, also has profited financially from her husband's position. These allegations have never been proved, and no charges have been brought. But Chao's arrest revived the suspicions about his mother-in-law, lending credence to what had been little more than rumors.
In addition, a top presidential aide, Chen Tse-nian, was arrested recently in connection with financial irregularities in the construction of a high-speed railway between major Taiwanese cities after he was photographed gambling at a South Korean casino.
Bikhim said Chao's arrest particularly sapped morale in the Democratic Progressive Party because it undermined one of Chen's two "core values," Taiwanese national identity and clean government.
Moreover, the signs of sleaze arose against a background of political trouble. In particular, Chen's decision to do away with the National Reunification Council last February was seen by many Taiwanese, particularly Nationalists, as a rash and unnecessary provocation of China. It also angered the Bush administration, diplomatic sources said, and led U.S. officials to refuse Chen's request for a stopover in the United States during a flight to Latin America.
The United States, which has promised to help Taiwan defend itself, has long been regarded here as an indispensable ally. Chen's decision on the reunification council, followed by the spectacle of being turned away by irritated U.S. officials, created an impression that Taiwan had an unsteady hand on the tiller.
Recent public opinion polls have shown Chen supported by only 20 percent of those surveyed. Chiu Yi, a Nationalist legislator who brought many of the allegations against Chen's family, predicted others will follow, suggesting Chen could be further weakened in the weeks and months to come. In particular, he charged, Chen's wife can be linked to suspicious and perhaps illegal dealings with several large holding companies.
"If I were Chen Shui-bian, with all that's coming out, I would step down," said Chiu, a Cornell-trained economist.
Chiu was invited to Peking University last week to speak to students on his campaign against Chen, who is widely despised in China. But after he told Beijing-based reporters that Taiwan's democracy and free press were essential in allowing him to air his charges, officials from the Chinese government's Taiwan Affairs Office told him he could not make the speech.
