Storm Warning: Choose Your Caribbean Island Wisely

A summer trip to the Caribbean has definite advantages. Cheap low-season flights to the region pop up constantly, such as last month's offer by USA3000 of $198 round-trip flights from Washington to Cancun, Mexico. Many of the region's hotels also offer sharp seasonal discounts.

But -- you knew there was a but -- summer and early fall are also hurricane season. And at least one study is predicting that the run of storms in 2006 will be almost as treacherous as last year's record season.

According to a Colorado State University team headed by hurricane analyst William M. Gray, nine hurricanes will sweep through the Caribbean and United States this year, five of them major ones. In addition, 17 named storms and other less forceful tropical storms and depressions are expected.

In its own hurricane forecast issued late last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that slightly fewer storms will hit this year than last, but still far more than average: at least eight hurricanes, four to six of them serious, and 13 to 16 named tropical storms. The question is "not whether the season will be above average, but how much above normal it will be," NOAA's report said.

The forecasts stress that where and when storms will hit in the coming months is impossible to predict. While the official hurricane season extends from June through November, according to past patterns the heaviest activity is generally concentrated between mid-August and mid-September in the eastern Caribbean and between mid-September and mid-November in the western Caribbean.

Still, "compared to the beauty of the region, the risks of something untoward happening are small," said Chris Landsea, a NOAA hurricane specialist. "If somebody offered me a trip to the Caribbean in the middle of hurricane season, I'd jump on it."

Check Weather Patterns

There is no shortage of data designed to help travelers plan where to go and when. "No one would head to Antarctica without studying the weather patterns and how to protect themselves," said NOAA spokesman Frank Lepore. "Why should they go to the Caribbean, in a time of high storm activity, without making preparations?" Among the resources available:

· Caribbean Hurricane Network ( http://www.stormcarib.com/ ), maintained by storm watchers throughout the Caribbean, has satellite maps of daily weather patterns and an island-by-island account of hurricane hits dating to the 1800s.

· NOAA's site, http://www.noaa.gov/ , is packed with useful information, including weather reports, historical data and news. One page features maps showing which Caribbean regions are most hurricane-prone during each month of the season.

· The Weather Channel's home page, http://www.weather.com/ , offers maps that track a hurricane's path and has a regular update of airport closings, among other useful details.

"The point is not to deter people from traveling to the Caribbean," said James Elsner, who specializes in hurricanes at Florida State University. "It's to help them be prepared in the event that a storm emergency happens."

Beyond informing themselves about a destination's weather history, travelers should also check the emergency preparedness procedures to be used by hotels and island authorities. Every traveler bound for the region in this season should: