The U.N. Success Story That Wasn't

Timor's reconstruction also unwittingly exacerbated tensions within the Timorese military and police. During the reconstruction effort, the United Nations recruited much of the new Timorese police force from Timorese who served as cops during the Indonesian period. But the army remained dominated by men from the east who were guerrillas during the Indonesian time, and thus hated the people now serving as police.

And although many Americans who desire a pullout from Iraq may not want to hear it, East Timor's future also has been jeopardized because Australia, the major foreign power, withdrew too quickly. Australian troops, who helped restore peace in 1999, had been stationed in a region of Timor that is home to many of the men now involved in the Dili violence, said Damien Kingsbury, an Australian expert on East Timor. But last year, with East Timor deemed a success, most Australian soldiers pulled out.

This spring, all these mistakes combined to trigger the violence. In March, Alkatiri sacked soldiers who continued to complain about discrimination and poor working conditions. And when possible challengers emerged to criticize the prime minister inside his party, he changed the rules on voting, so polling was done by a show of hands. With party members fearful of openly challenging Alkatiri, who also had passed a law making defamation a crime punishable by long prison terms, he crushed any potential rivals.

The dismissed soldiers, most from the west, held a demonstration in Dili in April, but the government gave no ground. In late April, troops loyal to the leadership shot dead at least four of the protesters, while the rebel soldiers gathered a larger force in the hills outside Dili.

But the international community continued to promote East Timor as a success story. Only weeks ago, a meeting on the country at the United Nations resulted in various ambassadors heaping praise on themselves for East Timor's reconstruction. World Bank President Paul D. Wolfowitz also chimed in, hailing "the considerable progress the Timorese people have achieved . . . the bustling markets, the rebuilt schools, the functioning government."

Finally, in the past two weeks the frustrations exploded, with rebel soldiers from the west and police fighting with soldiers loyal to the government. In one tragedy, loyalist soldiers killed 10 unarmed policemen. As the violence spiraled into uncontrolled mob attacks, East Timor declared emergency law, but not fast enough to prevent predictions of all-out civil war.

For many average Timorese, the turmoil has recalled the Indonesian occupation and aftermath. About 100,000 people already have fled their homes. Foreign observers estimate that nearly 30 people have died in this round of violence, and with the Australians largely gone there was no force capable of disarming the fighters until the new peacekeepers arrived. Worried, I tried to call Chico's cellphone last week. Digging through piles of photographs of Timorese beaches and optimistic reports of East Timor's future, I found the number. When I tried it, the phone sputtered. Then it, too, died.

jkurlantzick@ceip.org

Joshua Kurlantzick is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and special correspondent for the New Republic.