Cloud Nine or Cloud Nein?

Four Years After Its Stunning Achievement, the U.S. Could Play Better but Fare Worse in a Brutal Group in Germany

The international rankings tell us that the U.S. national team should contend for a semifinal berth in the World Cup. The Americans' performance four years ago tells us that they should not be satisfied with their German summer odyssey unless they escape the first round and win an elimination match.

The number of U.S. players with World Cup experience and playing in top-flight European leagues tells us that they have finally achieved the right mix of professional sophistication to compete with anyone in the vast soccer universe.

The reality of this year's tournament -- which will begin Friday with the grand-opening match in Munich and offer up the U.S. opener Monday in Gelsenkirchen -- tells us something quite different.

When all critical factors are weighed, when personnel is evaluated, matchups deliberated and history noted, the American squad seems to find itself with only a negligible chance of repeating its stunning 2002 success.

To reach the round of 16, the U.S. team will have to finish first or second in a brutal four-nation group that also includes three-time champion Italy, a fashionable choice to reach the final this year; the Czech Republic, a reemerging European power; and Ghana, a mysterious World Cup debutant with an abundance of skilled players.

If the Americans manage to finish second, their next opponent likely would be Brazil, the defending champion and an immense favorite to win a sixth title.

"The challenge is a pretty great one," said Bruce Arena, whose 7 1/2 years in command of the U.S. program give him the longest tenure among the tournament's 32 coaches. "The way this team is going to be judged is how we play in the World Cup. It's really that simple."

At the moment, however, things are not that simple. Following its quarterfinal run four years ago, the United States is no longer regarded as a second-class soccer nation. That is reflected in the world rankings, determined by a convoluted formula developed by FIFA, the sport's world governing body, in which the Americans are tied for fifth and ahead of the likes of France, Argentina, Italy, England and Germany.

While all of those nations have won World Cup titles and carry legitimate championship aspirations this year, the United States has more grounded goals under challenging circumstances.

"It's hard to really say what success is going to be for us," said midfielder Claudio Reyna, the team captain who is on his fourth World Cup roster. "We can play three very good games and not get out of our group, and that would still be considered a success if we could hold our own against these teams. At the same time, we're going there to win. Our approach isn't to just play well. It's gotten to the point where we feel we can beat anyone."

Besides raising expectations, the 2002 results also have boosted U.S. confidence.

"Before, no one expected us to do anything," said forward-midfielder Landon Donovan, who, at age 20, scored twice in the last World Cup. "It was like, 'Who cares about the U.S.?' Now we have to think we should do well in this World Cup. That's different because now we have the pressure.