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After Zarqawi, No Clear Path In Weary Iraq
A U.S. soldier sets up a photograph of the slain Abu Musab al-Zarqawi at a Baghdad news conference. Reflections on the portrait and its frame, page C1.
(By Khalid Mohammed -- Associated Press)
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Observers held out the possibility that with the death of Zarqawi, whose insistence on targeting Shiite civilians rather than military targets caused a rift with al-Qaeda leaders, the insurgency might focus more on attacking U.S. and Iraqi security forces.
And in contrast to pronouncements after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December 2003, no one ventured publicly on Thursday that the killing of Zarqawi might spell the end of the insurgency.
Even Caldwell, the U.S. military spokesman, warned that the most likely initial effect would be a surge in attacks.
"We're looking for an increase in insurgent activity as each wannabe-Zarqawi vies for status as the baddest boy on the block," an Army officer in Baqubah, near the scene of the lethal airstrike, said in an e-mail.
"We've been here so many times: the killing of Uday and Qusay [Hussein], the capture of Saddam, the elections, the transfer of sovereignty, the new government -- all marked by euphoria, lots of talk of tipping points, lots of high fives and then dismay as Iraq continues to spiral into oblivion," said retired Marine Lt. Col. Dale Davis, a former intelligence officer still active in the Middle East.
In each previous instance, analysts said, U.S. and Iraqi leaders squandered the momentum generated by such elated announcements. The challenge now facing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is to defuse sectarian tensions through what U.S. officials hope will be national reconciliation and to make this victory over the insurgency stick.
"If it is just Zarqawi, it is largely a political and propaganda victory and could disappear as quickly as capturing Saddam or killing his sons," said Anthony H. Cordesman, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "You are going to turn him into a martyr to those who support his cause. If you have more Iraqi insurgents become more visible and more intense, this doesn't necessarily make it worse for the insurgency."
Staff writers Thomas E. Ricks, Josh White, Ann Scott Tyson and Barton Gellman in Washington and Washington Post staff in Iraq contributed to this report.
