Mixed Messages From Restless Voters

She said that Republican Senate candidates in the four states where the GOP sees a chance to win Democratic seats -- Washington, Minnesota, New Jersey and Maryland -- are all casting their campaigns to try to capture independent votes, something I have also noticed.

Rep. Tom Reynolds, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, insists in his briefings that the adverse national political climate -- the low ratings for Bush and Congress -- will not overwhelm the voter loyalties that members have built in their districts.

Budde strikes me as being more realistic when she says that "the things that have complicated the president's agenda will inevitably be an issue" for Republicans in the midterm. "Iraq certainly. The aftermath of Katrina."

The combination has raised questions about the overall competence of the people running government. And, as she said, "the president's numbers are not good, and we don't expect they will get much better" before November.

Budde concludes that "there are enough [House] districts in play for the Democrats to take control." But as the California special election reminds us, it still takes a candidate and a campaign to produce a win. Coming close doesn't really count.

davidbroder@washpost.com