A House Subtracted

There is Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report -- who, appropriately, is managing five fantasy baseball teams at the moment -- and who parses the House races into eight categories. These include "Pure Toss-Up," "Toss-Up/Tilt Republican," "Lean Republican" and "Republican Favored," and the equivalent groups for Democrats.

There is Reiter, who says, "I love numbers," and who in seventh grade tracked his Ms. Pac-Man scores with a flowchart.

Walter of the Cook Political Report tries to explain how if you use 1994 as a guide and you assume a "tidal wave" of voter discontent that expands the number of toss-up races to, say, 40, and you multiply 40 by 75 percent, then -- she stops herself.

"We're getting a little bit too in-the-weeds," she says.

The California special election won by Republican Brian Bilbray last week is either really encouraging for the GOP or really encouraging for Democrats, depending on what you take into account. Do you consider the vast sums of money spent by Republicans? The number of Democrats and Republicans in the district? How the district voted in the 2004 presidential election?

Some people say there could be a 5 to 10 percent "drag" on Republicans because of the national mood. Walter tries to explain this theory by imagining Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce of Ohio running a 50-yard dash wearing a 50-pound backpack.

Whoa.

We ask Rothenberg to put his expertise on the line: How many seats will the Democrats take?

"Eight to 12," he says at first, then backs up. That's what the science tells him, he says, but his "gut" tells him "15 to 20."

What numbers cannot convey, strained weather analogies surely can. People talk about a "Category 5" hurricane that could sweep Democrats into office. They talk about a "wind" and a "tsunami." They debate whether a big wave could "breach the wall" of incumbencies. They suggest that the Democrats could put a lot of "surfboards in the water" and then . . .

You get the idea.

"We should all be barred from using the word 'wave,' " Reiter says.

Right. Let's go back to the math. It made at least as much sense.