Cropp's Gay Support Surprises Insiders

Cropp's poll of 796 likely Democratic voters conducted by Diane Feldman shows the council chairman with a slight lead over Fenty, 38 percent to 36 percent -- a statistical dead heat, given the 3.5 percent margin of error. The other major contenders registered in the single digits, with 12 percent of voters declaring themselves undecided.

"Cropp's lead extends across the city with a strong lead among African American voters," reads a summary of the results obtained by The Post.

In the other poll, the Foggy Bottom Association hired the Mellman Group to survey 400 likely Democratic voters about this fall's citywide races, as well as issues related to development. That topic is extremely important to the association, which has complained that George Washington University is expanding like a cancer.

While the poll didn't actually refer to the university as a malignant growth, it was designed to communicate the message that the academic institution is interested in building more than ivory towers.

"We're fighting a David-versus-Goliath battle against a huge developer that is masquerading as a university," said Joy Howell , the association's president.

To the group's delight, even residents who don't live near masked giants are concerned about the issue: Sixty-six percent of those surveyed said developers have too much influence in land use decisions. And 88 percent said community members need to have a voice in campus land use issues.

The smaller poll differed from Cropp's in its election analysis.

In the mayor's race, according to Mellman, Fenty leads Cropp 34 percent to 28 percent, with 28 percent of the vote undecided and the three other major contenders in single digits. The poll has a 4.9 percent margin of error. Fenty holds a 3-percentage-point lead over Cropp among black voters (33 percent to 30 percent), the poll shows, and a stronger following among white voters (37 percent to 25 percent).

"Polling is a subjective business," said Cropp campaign spokesman Ron Eckstein about the difference in numbers. "The environment is still very fluid."

In the chairman's race, the poll showed Ward 3 council member Kathy Patterson with a slight advantage over Ward 7 council member Vincent C. Gray, 30 percent to 27 percent, though 44 percent remain undecided.

At-large incumbent Phil Mendelson has a 13-point lead over major opponent A. Scott Bolden, 30 percent to 17 percent, with 53 percent of voters undecided.

Incumbent Advantage

While tough races are being fought for open council seats in Wards 3, 5 and 6, the largest pot of cash raked in by a candidate in a ward race over the past three months was collected by an incumbent with token opposition.

Council member Jim Graham (D-Ward 1) raised more than $176,000 during the reporting period that began March 10, according to reports filed this week with the D.C. Office of Campaign Finance.

Graham notes that he has spent less than $1,200 of those funds, putting him in the catbird seat as he enters the final crucial months before the Sept. 12 Democratic primary, when he could face as many as three challengers: Lenwood O. Johnson, Chad Williams and Sertira A. "Cookie" Williams .

"You've got to take it seriously," Graham said. "I wouldn't be the first popular incumbent to be knocked off."

Staff writer David Nakamura contributed to this report.