Region's Job Growth a Centrifugal Force

The gap between planners' hopes and what is occurring was on display this month at a workshop at the Baltimore Convention Center, where 300 government officials, businesspeople and civic leaders gathered to discuss how best to accommodate the growth expected in central Maryland over the next 25 years.

Grouped around tables, participants debated where to target future residential and job growth, placing color-coded Legos in the desired locations on a large map. Most groups chose Baltimore and its inner suburbs or inside the Capital Beltway along transit lines in Prince George's -- areas that have a strong infrastructure and that have lagged economically behind much of the state.

But other participants said these hopeful towers of white, blue and yellow Legos in more urbanized areas were out of step with reality. At one table, participants clustered more growth in Howard and Anne Arundel, in acknowledgment of jobs moving to Fort Meade.

"We've got people at this table who are living this reality, who understand what's really going on," said Scott Keenum, a mortgage broker based in Columbia.

Some officials play down predictions of the intercounty connector spurring commercial development across central Maryland. They note that little land along the route is zoned for such growth, aside from the 2,000-acre Konterra parcel in Calverton near the connector's juncture with I-95. Howard's planning director, Marsha L. McLaughlin, said the county doesn't want to see the road sparking growth along its southern edge and is trying to focus jobs along its beleaguered Route 1 corridor.

But others say the connector will inevitably pave the way for a new growth corridor. "If you look at things historically, anytime you build a major road improvement, it does lead to new development," said Christopher Kurz of Linden Associates, a commercial development firm that works mainly in Howard and Anne Arundel.

Some closer to the core remain hopeful that the outward trend will be reversed. The Sarbanes-Oxley accounting law is creating more demand for legal office space in the District, and every few months bring word of a new high-rise project in the inner suburbs that mixes shops, offices and housing. Hopes are highest for Prince George's, where county officials want to interest developers in extensive underused land near the county's many Metro stops, said Kwasi G. Holman, the county's economic development director.

The number of jobs expected to be located in mixed-use projects across the region is relatively limited, though, and in most cases residents don't find jobs in their own residential complexes. Several such projects, including ones in Springfield and along Route 1 in southern Fairfax, are not within walking distance of Metrorail.

In theory, locating jobs on the outer fringes where people are moving should shorten commutes for workers, yet driving times continue to increase, given the scattered nature of suburban development and the fact that some residents end up moving even farther out. And serving outer suburbs with transit is difficult, though it is being attempted with the planned Metrorail extension to Dulles.

Gerald L. Gordon, president of Fairfax's Economic Development Authority, said jobs will keep moving toward the fringes, because employers' first priority is being near a qualified workforce, and residents continue to seek affordable, spacious homes and good schools in more distant communities.

"Wanting to change the patterns is just wishful thinking," he said. "Businesses know what they need and where to find it."