N. Korea Warned On Testing Missile

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said a launch would be "provocative." (Sara D. Davis - AP)

A year ago, the world was on edge after reports that North Korea might test a nuclear weapon -- and one report even suggested the evidence showed that viewing stands had been built. No test took place.

Three years ago, Pyongyang laid out missiles near a parade route so they could be seen by satellites, resulting in news stories about the potentially provocative act. But North Korea never displayed the missiles publicly during the parade.

Because of cloud cover and high-altitude wind patterns, officials think that, if the missile has been fueled, the earliest a missile launch could occur would be Tuesday evening, Washington time. North Korea is 14 hours ahead of Washington, and officials expect that the North Koreans would launch a missile during daylight hours.

Experts disagree on the likely range of the Taepodong 2, with estimates running as high as 9,000 miles -- far enough to hit the West Coast of the U.S. mainland and U.S. Pacific bases.

Rep. Mark S. Kirk (R-Ill.), who has specialized in North Korean issues and made two trips to that country, said the range is unknown because the current version of the rocket has a large new lower booster. Regardless of whether the rocket has two or three stages, he said, its current state "represents a dramatic increase in range."

If North Korea does launch the rocket on a trajectory that carries it over Japan, Kirk added, "it is expected to have a large impact on the Japanese public," and probably would push Japan to be even more closely aligned with the United States on defense issues.

Staff writer Thomas E. Ricks contributed to this report.