Northern Va. Republicans Try to Regroup

President Bush's unpopularity and the split among Republicans in Congress and the Virginia statehouse are hurting the GOP in Northern Virginia, say local party leaders, who worry that they could face tough challenges in some races this year and next.

Contributing to the leaders' concern, they say, are the recent string of losses to Democrats in Northern Virginia, a drop in local party activism and a widening divide with voters on such issues as traffic and taxes.

"All of us have to be concerned," said Sean T. Connaughton (R), chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors. "Everyone needs to step back and take a look at why we're losing and how do we correct our course to keep those in office in office and expand the number of elected Republicans."

The Republicans' troubles have made Northern Virginia Democrats hopeful of seriously challenging some entrenched GOP incumbents in the congressional elections Nov. 7 and picking up more seats in next year's General Assembly contests.

Bush's unpopularity in Northern Virginia, as evidenced by his overwhelming loss to Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) in Fairfax County in the 2004 presidential election, is making it harder for Republicans to regroup, local party leaders say. So is the split between Republican leaders in the U.S. House and Senate, who are jockeying for conservative support on such issues as immigration policy. In Richmond, Republicans in the General Assembly have said they are afraid state voters will blame them in next year's elections for holding up the state budget for so long and failing to come through with additional money for transportation.

Northern Virginia Republicans have been stewing for months over the party's recent losses to Democrats for governor and assembly seats in once-safe Loudoun and Fairfax counties. With a few key federal races this fall -- and with several General Assembly seats opening up next year -- party leaders are trying to learn what is wrong and how to right it.

The GOP holds sizable majorities in both chambers, so the party is not in immediate danger of losing control of the legislature even with significant Democratic gains in Northern Virginia.

But Democrats have been chipping away at the Republican majorities in recent elections, and Northern Virginia GOP leaders disagree about what to do next. Squabbles between moderates and anti-tax social conservatives, and between property-rights champions and supporters of growth regulation, are becoming louder in the party. In Prince William, moderates bruised from primary challenges in the past two elections called a meeting last month to discuss how to distance themselves from the party's right wing. In Loudoun, the local conservative Republican committee expelled members considered disloyal to the prevailing pro-property rights view.

Membership is sagging in area Republican committees. In Loudoun, committee membership fell from 318 in 2000 to 150 last year. In Fairfax, where meetings have drawn about 300 people, 95 voted in recent leadership elections.

Northern Virginia Republicans are also concerned about usually safe seats such as those of Fairfax Reps. Thomas M. Davis III and Frank R. Wolf and U.S. Sen. George Allen because all three face Democratic challengers in November.

Allen campaign manager Dick Wadhams acknowledged that an Allen win will be "a bigger challenge this year." Davis said much the same about his race -- but he blamed recent GOP losses on the president's unpopularity instead of a new demographic of more liberal voters.

To underscore the urgency, the state Republican Party has assembled a group of leaders and other local officials as the Northern Virginia Strike Force. The group is planning to issue a report this summer on how to respond to the party's predicament.