Duncan Drops Bid for Governor

The announcement came just a week before candidates must officially file for office, meaning that Duncan's name will not appear on the September primary ballot.

Aides to Ehrlich and O'Malley said they would be assessing the impact of Duncan's decision before deciding on any strategic adjustments. Ehrlich just put his first television ad in circulation this week and plans to formally announce his reelection bid and name a running mate in his home town of Arbutus next week.

Political analysts said yesterday that there was little question that the decision benefits O'Malley, who had been bracing for a summer-long battle with Duncan. Keith Haller of the independent research firm Potomac Inc. called it "very good news for O'Malley and the Democratic Party."

"He'll save millions of dollars he may have had to spend to respond to Duncan," Haller said. "It changes the whole tone of the dialogue right now."

Haller said O'Malley will now be free to court more conservative voters without having to fear he will lose the backing of his party's liberal base in the primary. And Duncan's departure could give the mayor greater access to campaign money in the state's wealthiest county -- money that may have been off-limits to him while Duncan was on the ballot.

The decision could also ripple through other statewide campaigns. The lack of a heated contest at the top of the ticket could diminish turnout for the September primary, which would alter calculations for those in the crowded race for U.S. Senate. And it throws Duncan's running mate, Stuart Simms, who once served as a prosecutor in Baltimore, back into the mix of the attorney general race, which has lacked a candidate from the Baltimore area.

"It's a whole different dynamic," said House Speaker Michael E. Busch (D-Anne Arundel).

Although Duncan cited health reasons as the cause for his withdrawal, there has been broad speculation that the campaign was running low on money and would fall out of contention this summer, said James G. Gimpel, a University of Maryland political science professor.

"I think we had all along been figuring that Duncan would eventually throw in the towel for one reason or another," Gimpel said. "Just not this reason."

In May, Duncan took a gamble by launching television ads before any other candidate, a move that seemed to be showing gains in some polls. But he was stung by the disclosure that he had accepted $20,000 in campaign contributions from companies linked to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and he went on the defensive.

Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert) said that he believes he saw signs of Duncan's depression last week at an event held by U.S. Rep. Albert R. Wynn (D-Md.) in Largo.

"You could see he was down in the dumps," Miller said. "I told him, 'Cheer up. You're swimming with the sharks. Don't let it get to you.' "