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Inside Iran's Fractured Regime

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Negotiating with such a fractured regime will be a delicate balancing act. The United States is handicapped in its ability to appraise the Iranian situation by having no embassy in Tehran, as well as by a lack of domestic experts. Policymakers have relied instead on the views of the viscerally anti-regime exile community, whose perspective happens to fit nicely with the disposition of many in the administration.

But it is critical for the United States to recognize that none of the ruling Iranian factions seems keen on confrontation. The real fight is over who will get the credit for normalizing ties with Washington -- and thus augment their power.

More crucially, the administration must be uncompromising in its support for Iranian democrats. The regime is trying to sell the Iranian people the idea that the United States, like Europe in the past and China and Russia today, is willing to sacrifice their democratic aspirations. Washington must combine direct negotiations -- admittedly long overdue -- with an unambiguous message to the people of Iran that the United States is not ready to legitimize a system in which only the select few hold power.

amilani@stanford.edu

mcfaul@hoover.stanford.edu

Abbas Milani is director of Iranian studies at Stanford University and co-director of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution with Michael McFaul, who teaches political science at Stanford.

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