Poll Shows Ehrlich Lagging As He Opens Reelection Run

But voters still have a mostly positive view of Ehrlich; large majorities say he is honest and likable. He has only begun to fight, and he is hoping to spend $20 million to convince voters that he deserves another four years.

Poor Marks on Education

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According to the poll, Ehrlich and O'Malley are about equally popular with the state's independent voters and within their own parties. In most parts of the country, that would signal a very close race. But because more than half of Maryland's registered voters are Democrats, it provides the substantial lead for O'Malley.

In 2002, Ehrlich overcame that advantage with a forceful and fresh-faced campaign against then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Exit polls showed that he attracted support from independent voters, people who considered themselves moderates and women who have traditionally backed Democrats. But the new poll shows that the governor has been losing those constituents at this point of the campaign.

Although an Election Day telephone poll showed that Ehrlich got about 55 percent of the independents in 2002, he and O'Malley are tied in the current poll. His support among self-described moderates dropped from 50 percent to 37 percent and among white women from 61 percent to 45 percent.

The new poll asked how much Ehrlich has accomplished in his first term and found that 8 percent said "a lot" and 21 percent said "not much"; 40 percent gave him credit for a "fair amount" and 30 percent for "some."

"I think what you're seeing is voters think he's done an okay job, but they can't really point to any accomplishments," said Democratic pollster Peter Brodnitz, who advised Timothy M. Kaine's successful gubernatorial cam paign in Virginia last year and does not have a statewide client in Maryland. "They're not seeing a compelling reason" to reelect.

Ehrlich also won in 2002 by disrupting Democrats' traditional winning strategy of rolling up enough votes in Montgomery and Prince George's and the Baltimore region to offset losses elsewhere. But although Ehrlich got a boost of more than 50,000 votes last time in the region consisting of Baltimore and the counties of Baltimore, Harford and Carroll, the new poll shows him trailing O'Malley there by 12 points. It shows the two running even in the Central Maryland counties of Anne Arundel, Howard and Frederick, where Ehrlich won by more than 85,000 votes against Townsend.

On issues, Ehrlich gets his poorest marks on public education. Even though he says he has spent more money on schools than any other governor -- a state law passed the year before he took office mandates it -- half of the poll respondents said he has done a "not so good" or "poor" job of "putting more state money into the public schools."

Public education was cited by 35 percent of the respondents as the issue that should be the top priority of the next governor, more than any other. Female voters especially were interested in education; 39 percent of them said Ehrlich was doing a good job.

And the poll indicated that some might believe Ehrlich is too close to big business. Two-thirds of the respondents said "large business corporations" had too much influence in the Ehrlich administration, and 77 percent said the legislature was right to force Wal-Mart to pay for health insurance for its employees. Ehrlich vetoed that legislation, as well as an increase in the minimum wage, and was overridden by Democratic lawmakers on both.

Those actions convinced Noelle Joll, a geographer from Anne Arundel, that Ehrlich was not as moderate as he said. "I don't think he's a bad guy," she said. "I just think he's pandering to his base."

56% Job Approval Rating

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On the other hand: Tom Caulfield, 59, a Republican who owns Chubby's Barbecue restaurant in Frederick, said he is sticking with Ehrlich.