Maryland Senate Race May Hinge On Ethnicity

"I still consider myself running from behind," says Kweisi Mfume (D), who trails others in fundraising. (Lucian Perkins - Twp)

Candidates' Obstacles

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Cardin, a 10-term congressman from Baltimore, trails Mfume in part because nearly half of Maryland's registered voters say they don't know who he is. In Prince George's and Montgomery counties, the poll shows, 66 percent of voters have no opinion of him.

But the many racial crosscurrents have become the most vexing reality for all three campaigns as they design their strategies for the fall, aides and political analysts said last week.

For the moment, Cardin and Mfume are trying to maneuver through a potentially divisive Sept. 12 primary and then into an eight-week general election clash with a well-funded Republican who is known to three-quarters of the state's voters.

The biggest challenge for Cardin is becoming better known in the Washington suburbs without angering Mfume's supporters, said Chuck Todd, editor of the Hotline, a political newsletter.

"They are running a very, very quiet campaign," Todd said, adding that he believes Cardin is "running in fear" of upsetting Mfume supporters, whom he will need to win over if he prevails in the primary.

That job has been made more difficult by Steele, who has reminded voters at every turn that many in the Democratic Party establishment fell in behind Cardin early.

When a reporter questioned Steele recently about his ties to President Bush, he replied, "I'm sure Kweisi Mfume would like to have the support of his party's leaders in Washington."

Steele has a clear motive to meddle in the Democratic primary, said Thomas Schaller, a University of Maryland Baltimore County political science professor who is supporting Cardin. The poll shows that Cardin holds a 10-point lead over Steele in a general election matchup, while Mfume leads Steele by three points among registered voters. Mfume and Steele are tied among likely voters at 46 percent.

And if Steele faces Cardin, the poll shows, he would take nearly a quarter of the black vote.

"It's encouraging to us," said Doug Heye, Steele's campaign spokesman. "Obviously, it shows the attacks the Democrats have made repeatedly on race have been unsuccessful."

Cardin said that at this stage of the campaign, if he appears quiet it's because he has been focused on gathering endorsements, raising money and building a network of supporters to help him on election day.

"We opened up field offices in Montgomery and Prince George's. We have full campaign operations there," Cardin said. "We have the structure in place. Now is the time people are going to start focusing on the race."