Mexican Presidential Rivals Both Claim Win in Tight Vote

All three leading candidates talked of trying to reach an immigration accord with the United States. But none made it a central part of his campaign or offered detailed proposals.

Instead, they used the immigration controversy as a leaping-off point for touting their economic plans. Calderón, the candidate of the National Action Party, or PAN, set his gaze beyond Mexico with promises to attract foreign investment to create jobs that would dissuade Mexicans from leaving. López Obrador turned inward, calling for huge public works projects -- such as a railroad system, new public universities and extensive housing construction -- to stimulate employment and stem migration.

More than 20.6 million people of Mexican origin live in the United States, representing 58 percent of the nation's Hispanic population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. There are also more than 6.2 million illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States, accounting for 56 percent of the illegal immigrant population, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

Mexicans living in the United States were eligible to vote in Sunday's election, but the registration numbers came in stunningly low, a trend some blamed on inadequate organization and the fact that a small registration fee was required. Only 32,632 Mexicans in the United States registered to vote, and of those only 28,335 sent in ballots, according to Mexico's Federal Election Institute.

The prospect of a López Obrador presidency made financial markets queasy, with Mexican bond prices dipping in anticipation of his possible victory. His parochial approach -- "First Mexico, later foreigners" -- and penchant for anti-business rhetoric raised questions about his ability to maintain good relations with conservative governments.

Jorge Montaño, who served under PRI governments as ambassador to the United States and the United Nations, said that if López Obrador were elected he would "have to start with a learning curve. I don't think he's aware of the dimension and the complexity of the relationship with the U.S."

But Montaño also described López Obrador as "an astute, pragmatic politician" who would be unlikely to incite the United States. "He will take a cautious line at the beginning," he said.

Calderón had positioned himself as a candidate who understood Mexico's need to engage with the global economy. Nonetheless, as president he would face challenges in shaping a relationship with Washington, some analysts said, because of Fox's failure to accomplish one of his highest priorities: an immigration deal with the United States.

Many in Mexico still express pique that immigration talks collapsed when President Bush tightened border security after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Fox remained on good terms with Bush, prompting López Obrador to call Fox a "puppet" of the United States. Fox's setbacks could hurt Calderón if he were elected, some analysts said.

"It's like a Mexican saying about having a relationship that didn't turn out as hoped," said Octavio Pescador, who was born in Mexico City and is a professor at the C?sar Ch?vez Center at UCLA. "He'll carry baggage."

López Obrador also repeatedly told audiences that he would not honor Mexico's commitment under NAFTA to lower tariffs on U.S. corn and beans. Calderón, who presented himself as a free-trade advocate, spoke of resuming stalled efforts to wrestle more aid from the United States.

Trade between the two neighbors topped $243 billion in 2003, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The United States is, by far, Mexico's most important trading partner.