Democrats Not Eager to Emulate Texas's Redistricting

In North Carolina, some Democratic partisans have urged party leaders to use their redistricting powers to reverse the GOP's 7-to-6 advantage in the House delegation. But several political currents seem to be running against that notion. Democrats hold a slim majority in the state House, and their speaker faces ethics allegations that reportedly leave him little stomach for a fiercely partisan showdown.

The push for more assertive gerrymandering "was viewed as something they didn't want to do politically," Price said. Moreover, any map revisions that might threaten North Carolina's two African American House members would likely upset black voters -- a key party constituency -- and run afoul of the Voting Rights Act. The 1965 law, designed to protect minority participation in politics, "is a real constraint" on redistricting options, Price said. "It doesn't impact the Republican Party the way it does Democrats."

The situation in Louisiana, also covered by the Voting Rights Act, is further complicated because Hurricane Katrina dislocated thousands of residents. Any effort to redraw House district lines before the 2010 Census would surely face court challenges, analysts say.

Democrats' greatest hopes could lie in a few large states where they could gain full control of the government this fall. California would be the giant prize, but Democrats would have to oust Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), an uphill battle. Moreover, the state has a strong bipartisan tradition of protecting both parties' House incumbents.

In New York, Democrats are poised to claim the governorship, and could possibly take over the state Senate after years of GOP control. But gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer (D) is running on a clean-government platform, and approving a blatantly gerrymandered map might contradict that message.

Of course, Republicans could follow DeLay's blueprint in other states that they control. But they appear to have maximized their opportunities in the biggest targets, including Texas, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, said Tim Storey, a redistricting expert for the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures.

Even with the Supreme Court flashing a green light last month, Storey said, "I really don't foresee a big groundswell for redistricting" before 2011. The Texas plan survived, but many people saw it as an outrage, and DeLay paid a high price, he said.

Politicians nationwide saw "the controversy that rained down on Texas," Storey said. "They are very wary of that voter outrage."