Deterrence is Not a Dirty Word

North Korea's failed test launch of the long-range Taepo-Dong II missile on July 5 may show that North Korea is not yet able to strike the United States with ballistics, but Americans should not let down their guard just yet. This is unlikely to be the last North Korean attempt to launch such a missile and once their engineers figure out the problem, they will go back to the launching pad. No one knows how long this process will take, but it could be as little as a few months and North Korean engineers will want to save their jobs and more by fixing the problem quickly. This continued development of missiles should worry all Americans as over the past few years North Korea has acquired enough nuclear material to build a small arsenal of nuclear weapons and while they cannot yet miniaturize a nuclear warhead to fit on a long-range missile, they are clearly pursuing a system capable of holding American cities at risk of attack. Their success is only a matter of time unless Pyongyang can be convinced their course is futile.

Over the long run, how can Americans be sure that some future "test" missile won't be fitted with a nuclear weapon and targeted on a US city? The short answer is they can't. But through a straightforward policy of deterrence we can eliminate any thought in North Korean minds that they can attack the United States and survive. President Bush should declare that any offensive missile fired at the United States or its allies in the region from North Korea would be an act of war requiring a swift and massive response. Such a clear, strong statement would reassure our allies and remove the incentive for North Korea to pursue its missile programs. Moreover, attaching the same consequences to any sales of long-range missiles to hostile states would eliminate the profit motive for North Korea . This is what Kennedy did when Russia deployed missiles to Cuba, and what Truman, Eisenhower, and Reagan did during the height of the cold war. The result helped prevent the use of Soviet nuclear weapons during the cold war and deterred China from similar pursuits. But the current uneven and confused response by the United States has led to a weakening of deterrence in East Asia and has allowed the dangerous belief to take root in North Korean minds, that it can successfully pursue its aggressive strategy. Nothing could be more dangerous for stability in the region.

While the United States has moved to support additional sanctions by Japan and urged South Korea to penalize North Korea in response to the missile tests, this falls far short of the severe consequences that had been threatened before the launch. U.S. allies and adversaries alike have to know that Washington will not stand by and let hostile nations threaten global security. To date, North Korea has succeeded in developing a significant nuclear arsenal and in advancing its missile programs with only a minimum of economical and political consequences. This only encourages more provocative behavior in the future.

Such a stark recommendation may sound harsh and smack of the nuclear dangers that permeated the cold war -- a comparison the White House has rejected. But deterrence (and a lot of luck) prevented a nuclear conflict during the cold war and can help prevent unpredictable states from making the wrong decision. North Korea needs to be reminded that the US deterrent remains strong and President Bush needs to express just that in the strongest possible terms. Anything less invites North Korea to continue along its dangerous path.

Jon B. Wolfsthal is a fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in these publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors.