Dual Crises Test Olmert as Leader

Hamas fighters drive through a crowd along the Gaza-Egypt border after Palestinian militants forced open a border gate, wounding an Egyptian and letting at least 600 people back into Gaza, Palestinian officials say. (By Emilio Morenatti -- Associated Press)

"The way he is making decisions gives a lot of weight to international approval," said a senior Foreign Ministry official involved in developing Israel's strategy. "But, God forbid, if Israel loses its international support, then Olmert would be forced to decide whether to continue seeking it or push harder for the security of his people and reorder south Lebanon on his own."

Olmert became interim prime minister in January after Sharon suffered a debilitating stroke. Less than three months later, the former mayor of Jerusalem was elected on a pledge to withdraw Israel from parts of the West Bank and fix the final borders of the Jewish state, a project Sharon began by evacuating the Gaza settlements and military bases last year.

Most of Olmert's diplomatic efforts since then have focused on persuading the United States, European countries and others to endorse his plan to withdraw from some, but not all, of the territory Israel occupied in the 1967 Middle East war. Palestinian officials have said the plan would not leave enough land for a viable Palestinian state to emerge or lead to a negotiated peace agreement.

The raids by Hamas and Hezbollah, which embarrassed the potent Israeli military, have at least temporarily upset Olmert's agenda. Ezrahi said that "until this moment, Olmert's test was whether he could maintain the system after the sudden disappearance of Sharon and be a custodian of Israeli interests and stability in times of domestic crisis and transition."

"From this moment, he is undergoing a more classical Israeli test of making decisions on matters of peace and war that will decide his political fate," Ezrahi said.

As defense minister in the early 1980s, Sharon took Israel into Lebanon at a time when Palestinian armed groups were showering northern Israel with rocket fire. Although the invasion was designed only to create distance between the rocket launchers and the Israeli border, the army eventually marched all the way to Beirut and Israel supported an allied force in a south Lebanon buffer zone for 18 years.

Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia, rose to prominence waging a guerrilla war against the Israeli military in south Lebanon. The movement, sponsored by Iran with logistical support from Syria, is celebrated across the Arab world for helping drive Israel from the area in May 2000.

Uzi Arad, a former director of intelligence for the Mossad who advised Netanyahu, said Olmert is "reversing the policy of acquiescence and retreat that has eroded our policy of deterrence in recent years."

"He has a quiet political front, he has a domestic constituency that is quite resilient, and he can focus on managing the situation," said Arad, who heads the institute of policy and strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, a hawkish group. "And so far he has managed it quite well."

Arad added: "But the jury is still out. At the end of the day, he will be measured not by his toughness but by whether he actually degrades Hezbollah as a terrorist force."