By Scott Wilson
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, July 15, 2006; A01
JERUSALEM, July 14 -- Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, elected just months ago on a promise to ease Israel's grip on the occupied Palestinian territories, now is fighting a two-front war on battlefields the Jewish state has occupied and abandoned before in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. The outcome will determine not only the fate of three captured Israeli soldiers and the northern Israeli towns under rocket fire, but also his own goal of defining Israel's permanent borders.
Over the past three days, Olmert has ordered one of the largest Israeli military operations in Lebanon since the 1982 invasion, bombing roads, bridges and Beirut's international airport in response to a cross-border raid by the militant group Hezbollah that resulted in eight Israeli soldiers being killed and two others captured. Coupled with Israel's operation in Gaza, Olmert's offensive has killed more than 120 people and drawn criticism from European countries that he is using disproportionate military force.
Olmert has refrained from a large-scale ground operation in Lebanon, despite continuing rocket attacks that have killed four Israeli civilians and injured scores more. In doing so, he has charted a different course from his predecessor, Ariel Sharon, the former general who engineered Israel's invasion of Lebanon. Moreover, soon after the June 25 raid by Hamas's military wing and two smaller armed Palestinian groups killed two Israeli soldiers and captured Cpl. Gilad Shalit, Olmert rejected plans for a large tank invasion into northern Gaza presented by his generals, favoring short ground incursions and airstrikes instead, Israeli officials said.
The choices underscore what Israeli officials say is Olmert's desire to wage the fight with the radical Islamic groups Hamas and Hezbollah not through major ground operations that have turned world opinion against Israel in the past, but through punitive airstrikes and artillery fire, coupled with indirect diplomacy involving Israel's allies such as the United States and countries in Europe.
The shift in emphasis also reflects a change in Israeli public opinion, which is less tolerant of the heavy toll in lives that past military occupations have extracted. Earlier this month, Olmert told the cabinet that his military plans in Gaza did not envision a permanent ground presence there. "We will continue this battle with level-headedness and patience, while making use of the proper means," Olmert told the cabinet, according to officials briefed on the meeting. "We will operate, enter and pull out as needed.'"
The approach may also be a product of Olmert's own experience. A lawyer, politician and veteran cabinet minister who never held a security portfolio, Olmert is not among the legendary generals who have led the Jewish state. His defense minister, Amir Peretz, made his name as a trade union leader rather than a soldier. Olmert's chief military adviser, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, is also the first air force officer to serve as military chief of staff.
Yet Israeli analysts say Olmert's formidable challenges are the same that Sharon faced: The Lebanese and Palestinian governments he holds responsible for the attacks are too weak or unwilling to confront the armed groups in their territory.
"The dilemma is you cannot force a non-state to become a state," said Yaron Ezrahi, a Hebrew University political science professor. "What Olmert is seeking to do is to say this issue is not just about us. It should show to the world very clearly that the Arab-Israeli conflict has been hijacked by Islamists for their own purposes."
Olmert is seeking to focus international diplomatic efforts against Syria and Iran, the chief sponsors of Hezbollah. Israeli officials and analysts say Iran may have ordered the Hezbollah attack to demonstrate its power in the region at time when Israel, the United States and the European Union are demanding that it end its nuclear program. Meir Javedanfar, a political analyst here specializing in Iran, said the Iranian government "is using the current conflict as a poker chip in the game it is playing with the West over its nuclear program."
"It is showing the West, by attacking the soft underbelly of Israeli security, that pushing it around will have consequences," Javedanfar said. "I think Olmert's civilian experience is serving him well, though. In a situation like this, a purely military solution is not going to work."
Olmert's political opposition has pledged support for his response, which Israelis in general see as a necessary act of self-defense. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's hawkish opposition leader who opposed the Gaza withdrawal, has praised Olmert's efforts.
Whether the public will continue to do so in the face of continuing attacks is uncertain. On Friday, Olmert's security cabinet decided to continue military operations in Lebanon as rocket fire killed an Israeli woman and her 5-year-old grandson while injuring scores more across the north.
"The way he is making decisions gives a lot of weight to international approval," said a senior Foreign Ministry official involved in developing Israel's strategy. "But, God forbid, if Israel loses its international support, then Olmert would be forced to decide whether to continue seeking it or push harder for the security of his people and reorder south Lebanon on his own."
Olmert became interim prime minister in January after Sharon suffered a debilitating stroke. Less than three months later, the former mayor of Jerusalem was elected on a pledge to withdraw Israel from parts of the West Bank and fix the final borders of the Jewish state, a project Sharon began by evacuating the Gaza settlements and military bases last year.
Most of Olmert's diplomatic efforts since then have focused on persuading the United States, European countries and others to endorse his plan to withdraw from some, but not all, of the territory Israel occupied in the 1967 Middle East war. Palestinian officials have said the plan would not leave enough land for a viable Palestinian state to emerge or lead to a negotiated peace agreement.
The raids by Hamas and Hezbollah, which embarrassed the potent Israeli military, have at least temporarily upset Olmert's agenda. Ezrahi said that "until this moment, Olmert's test was whether he could maintain the system after the sudden disappearance of Sharon and be a custodian of Israeli interests and stability in times of domestic crisis and transition."
"From this moment, he is undergoing a more classical Israeli test of making decisions on matters of peace and war that will decide his political fate," Ezrahi said.
As defense minister in the early 1980s, Sharon took Israel into Lebanon at a time when Palestinian armed groups were showering northern Israel with rocket fire. Although the invasion was designed only to create distance between the rocket launchers and the Israeli border, the army eventually marched all the way to Beirut and Israel supported an allied force in a south Lebanon buffer zone for 18 years.
Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia, rose to prominence waging a guerrilla war against the Israeli military in south Lebanon. The movement, sponsored by Iran with logistical support from Syria, is celebrated across the Arab world for helping drive Israel from the area in May 2000.
Uzi Arad, a former director of intelligence for the Mossad who advised Netanyahu, said Olmert is "reversing the policy of acquiescence and retreat that has eroded our policy of deterrence in recent years."
"He has a quiet political front, he has a domestic constituency that is quite resilient, and he can focus on managing the situation," said Arad, who heads the institute of policy and strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, a hawkish group. "And so far he has managed it quite well."
Arad added: "But the jury is still out. At the end of the day, he will be measured not by his toughness but by whether he actually degrades Hezbollah as a terrorist force."