Statehouse Elections Get New Attention

Map and charts shows states legislatures that could change power in the upcoming elections; three sizes: (AP Graphic) (AP)

Johnson said the average over the past 30 years is that 12 chambers _ either a state House or a state Senate _ switch parties. He's hoping to fall only slightly behind and lose a net of one or two chambers.

"It's going to be a tough year," he acknowledged.

States targeted by one or both parties include Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Democrats see an opportunity driven by the lack of popularity for President Bush and the GOP-led Congress. "There's always a tide," said Fitz-Gerald in Colorado. "You're either swimming with it or against it. This time, I think we're swimming with it."

One troubling sign for the GOP is that over the past six months special elections saw 13 seats change hands from one party to the other _ and Democrats won 11 of those.

Johnson's Democratic counterpart in Washington, Michael Davies of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said internal polls show voters identifying with Democrats more than they did two or three years back. "We're poised to have a good year," he said.

Michigan state Sen. Mark Schauer knows from experience what's on the line.

After his state redrew its congressional maps to benefit the GOP in 2001 _ when Republicans controlled both chambers of the Legislature and the governorship _ four Democratic seats in the U.S. House were lost in one swoop.

Now, with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm hoping to win a second term, Democrats are focused on winning back both the state House and Senate. In each chamber, it will take a net gain of four seats for Democrats to take control, plus _ in the House _ Democrats will have to win three vacant seats they previously held.

"This is the first time in a generation where the Democrats have a chance to win back the majority; that's why the stakes are so high," said Schauer, one of the party leaders in Michigan.

With Democrats in control, they could pursue scholarship programs, restructuring of state business taxes and more issues that have gone nowhere in the GOP-led Legislature. And if they choose to redistrict _ which Schauer said is "in the back of everyone's mind" _ that could boost the number of Democratic seats in Congress.

Fitz-Gerald, the board chairman of the Democratic campaign committee, is trying to get the ear of national Democratic leaders to direct more money to help legislative races. She said mid-decade redistricting not only distracts legislators from their work, but also undermines voters' trust in the system by muddying traditional district lines.

"There are political reasons as well as practical reasons as to why legislators might not do this," she said. "But when power is the object, the people be damned."