Parties Scramble for Youth Vote
Turnout in 2004 Grabs Attention of Campaign Strategists

By Zachary A. Goldfarb
Special to The Washington Post
Sunday, July 16, 2006

In 2004, young people voted in the highest percentage they had since 1992, and in the third-highest percentage in the nine presidential elections since a constitutional amendment in 1971 lowered the voting age to 18.

In 2005, overall voter turnout declined in the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, except for the student-dense precincts with big voter turnout projects.

Because of numbers like this, political parties and campaigns this year are lavishing attention on a new generation of young voters. They are investing in staff, studying ways to use new technology and promoting legislation geared toward young people's interests. And while young people currently favor Democrats, analysts say they are not yet anchored long-term to any political party.

It is a shift from years past, when young people tended to be the first group cut from target lists of potential voters. In some ways, that made sense: Despite organizations pouring millions of dollars each cycle into registering these voters -- often using techniques such as melding politics and rock concerts -- the number of young people voting went steadily down.

But in the 2004 presidential election, when the overall electorate showed a four-percentage-point increase in turnout from 2000, the turnout rate among people ages 18 to 24 increased by 11 points -- to 47 percent from 36 percent.

The spike was attributed, in part, to intense voter turnout efforts and a highly polarized election. But people who study this generation -- known as Generation Y, millennials and even DotNets -- say it is also disposed to be more politically active and passionate.

"The millennials are quite idealistic and concerned about a whole range of issues, compared to the Xers, which tend to be pessimistic and detached," said Peter Levine, director of the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) at the University of Maryland, and a member of Generation X.

Heather Smith, 30, a veteran of youth mobilization efforts, has seen this budding interest in young voters. In 2004, she helped run a $9 million project to register and turn out young voters that contributed to the voting spike that year. The project's successor, Young Voter Strategies, at George Washington University, tries to convince political parties and candidates that young people are a crucial constituency and then teaches the groups how to reach them.

While research shows that young people use cellphones, the Internet and e-mail every day, it also shows that peer-to-peer efforts in the offline world and reminders to vote on Election Day are most effective.

Since January, Smith's group -- working with Democratic and Republican pollsters and consultants -- has met with nearly 100 campaign managers, consultants and staffers from different campaigns nationwide.

The group has also briefed national party officials and congressional staffers in Washington, and Smith and colleagues say they have received queries from advisers to two top potential 2008 candidates, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).

"Campaigns and the political establishment are learning from what we're doing. Young voters could make a difference in a close election and could build a party for the future," Smith said. "There's certainly some effort to figure out how to reach out to them."

Recently, the group has been showcasing the results of a poll on young voters done with prominent pollsters Ed Goeas, a Republican, and Celinda Lake, a Democrat. The poll found that young people believe Democrats are better equipped to handle their top concerns -- gas prices, education and the economy -- by a wide margin.

The Democratic advantage extends from 2004, when young people were the only age group Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) won in his presidential bid. The question for Democrats now is whether the youth advantage can turn into the margin of victory in close races that will decide control of Congress this November.

Ivan Frishberg, a Democratic consultant who works with Young Voter Strategies, said that Democrats this year "anticipate something's coming and they are starting to plan for it."

In that light, Democrats last month announced that college affordability would be a top issue on their agenda if they regain control of the House -- a move applauded by nonpartisan youth voter groups. "They're very important," said Rep. George Miller (Calif.), House Democrats' point man on college affordability. "We're trying to address issues of their concern."

Lake said she has told Democrats they have "a major opportunity" to nurture the future of the party. "The long-term studies show that if you capture a cohort in their youth three times in a row, then you hold their party identification for the rest of their life," she said.

At the Democratic National Committee, youth outreach has become a part of Chairman Howard Dean's 50-state strategy of investing in the party for 2006 and beyond. "With the new changes in the DNC, a lot of people woke up to the fact that we were the only age demographic that Kerry won," said Grant Woodard, 22, the president of the College Democrats of America, which is structurally a part of the DNC. In April, 45 young Democratic leaders convened at the DNC's convention in New Orleans to share tips on party building.

Republicans, meanwhile, seek to maximize the advantage they have in one subgroup: young people who already affiliate as Republicans. In an analysis, Goeas noted that "young Republican voters enjoy a seven-point intensity advantage over young Democratic voters," meaning they are more likely to participate and vote.

"Demographics are one thing, but nobody has a voter mobilization machine like we do on college campuses," said Paul Gourley, 24, chairman of the College Republicans National Committee.

The Republican National Committee is trying to get into youth communities at the beginning of the cycle. "This isn't about the last two weeks before an election," said David Rexrode, RNC national director of coalitions.

"We're using technology to allow youth to talk to other youth," he said, noting the creation of MyGOP, a social networking Web site for conservatives. "The way we influence voters and the way we influence our communities is to have people in the communities talking about our message."

Hugh Weber, a Republican consultant who works with Young Voter Strategies, said Republicans know that young voters lean Democratic, but "to square off 25 percent of the voting electorate is to ensure failure and defeat, and I think that's starting to resonate with the party."