Optimism on Both Sides of Gay-Marriage Debate

State Votes Will Show Whether Bans Are Losing Steam or Gaining Ground

DENVER -- The safest bet in American politics in recent years has been a state ban on same-sex marriage. Since 1998, proposals to outlaw such unions have appeared on the ballot in 20 states, both red and blue, and they have passed everywhere by big margins.

Accordingly, opponents of same-sex marriage -- who prefer to call the issue "protection of marriage" -- are confident these days as they look ahead to the eight (or possibly nine) states in which the ban is expected to be on the ballot in November.

"It costs some time and money to collect the signatures to put it on the ballot," said Bill Moeller of the Arlington-based citizens group American Values. "But once it's there, it tends to win with large numbers."

And yet, supporters of same-sex marriage -- who prefer to call the issue "marriage equality" -- are also optimistic as they look forward to this fall's campaigns. "Attitudes are changing, as people come to see this as a civil rights issue," said Brad Luna, of the Human Rights Campaign. "All the indicators show Americans are moving in the direction of marriage equality."

Among other things, proponents of same-sex marriage think they have a chance this November, for the first time, to defeat a ban on a state ballot. A nonpartisan poll in Wisconsin last month showed voters evenly split on the issue, with 49 percent favoring such a ban and 48 percent opposed. Gov. Jim Doyle (D) and four former governors from both parties have come out against the amendment.

Polling in Arizona and Colorado also suggests fairly close divisions. But opponents of same-sex marriage note that polls usually understate the actual vote for such a ban.

Beyond that, efforts to put a ban on state ballots are starting to fall short, both in the legislatures and in citizens' initiatives. In eight states, including Maryland, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, proposals calling for a ballot referendum banning same-sex marriage failed to pass the legislature this year. In California and Florida, opponents of same-sex marriage were unable to collect enough signatures to put an initiative on the ballot this fall.

In Illinois, groups opposing same-sex marriage submitted 347,000 signatures for their ballot proposal, but volunteers who support the unions scrutinized every name and challenged so many that the State Board of Elections refused to certify the proposal. Opponents are appealing that ruling.

Opponents of same-sex marriage have been cheered by a series of recent court decisions in their favor. On Friday, a federal appeals court upheld a measure approved by Nebraska voters in 2000 that bars same-sex marriage and also denies gay partners legal benefits that come with marriage. That reversed the ruling of a lower federal court, which had voided the Nebraska law.

Tennessee's Supreme Court, also on Friday, ruled that a proposal to ban same-sex marriage can be on the November ballot.

Earlier this month, the highest state courts in New York and Georgia rejected arguments that a denial of marriage rights to gays violates the principle of equal rights under law.

In the electoral arena, most of the ballot issues this November fall into two categories. One approach is a simple definition of marriage. For example, the wording suggested by Colorado-based Focus on the Family declares, "Only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in this state."