Optimism on Both Sides of Gay-Marriage Debate

Other measures go further, outlawing "civil unions" and denying same-sex couples the legal and tax benefits that married heterosexual couples receive.

The most complex ballot this year on the issue will be in Colorado, where at least two and perhaps four competing measures will face voters.

Opponents there are expected to put up a one-sentence initiative defining marriage as a union of one man and one woman. Supporters decided that they probably could not defeat that proposal, so they put a separate measure on the ballot that would legalize "domestic partnerships" for same-sex couples, giving them various financial, insurance and family benefits restricted to married heterosexual couples.

"We've decided to put most our money and effort into the campaign for domestic partnerships," said Sean Duffy, a Republican consultant in Denver who heads Coloradans for Fairness and Equality, which supports same-sex marriage. "It's possible that we could defeat one-man one-woman here, but we've decided to focus our effort on passing our domestic-partnership plan instead."

To counter the domestic-partnership proposal, opponents of gay rights are soliciting signatures for a "no legal status" ballot initiative, which would prohibit the state from "creating any legal status similar to marriage." If that measure makes the ballot, Duffy said, his side will put up another initiative designed to exclude domestic partnerships from the no-legal-status law.

Opponents of same-sex marriage have repeatedly failed to win enough support in Congress for a federal constitutional amendment banning such unions. The Senate did not approve such an amendment last month. Nonetheless, the House has scheduled a vote for today, and there, too, the measure is expected to fall well short of approval.

As a result, opponents of same-sex marriage see state elections as the place to make their stand. "We expect to win every ballot issue this fall, as we've done in the past, and keep our momentum for protecting traditional marriages," said Moeller, of American Values.

But supporters are seeking a breakthrough this year. "I think Americans look at Massachusetts and say, 'Well, Massachusetts is different,' " said Luna, of the Human Rights Campaign. "But let it happen in Washington or Wisconsin and people will say, 'Okay, this isn't so different, it's not the end of the world to give everybody equal marriage rights."