By T.R. Reid
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, July 18, 2006; A04
DENVER -- The safest bet in American politics in recent years has been a state ban on same-sex marriage. Since 1998, proposals to outlaw such unions have appeared on the ballot in 20 states, both red and blue, and they have passed everywhere by big margins.
Accordingly, opponents of same-sex marriage -- who prefer to call the issue "protection of marriage" -- are confident these days as they look ahead to the eight (or possibly nine) states in which the ban is expected to be on the ballot in November.
"It costs some time and money to collect the signatures to put it on the ballot," said Bill Moeller of the Arlington-based citizens group American Values. "But once it's there, it tends to win with large numbers."
And yet, supporters of same-sex marriage -- who prefer to call the issue "marriage equality" -- are also optimistic as they look forward to this fall's campaigns. "Attitudes are changing, as people come to see this as a civil rights issue," said Brad Luna, of the Human Rights Campaign. "All the indicators show Americans are moving in the direction of marriage equality."
Among other things, proponents of same-sex marriage think they have a chance this November, for the first time, to defeat a ban on a state ballot. A nonpartisan poll in Wisconsin last month showed voters evenly split on the issue, with 49 percent favoring such a ban and 48 percent opposed. Gov. Jim Doyle (D) and four former governors from both parties have come out against the amendment.
Polling in Arizona and Colorado also suggests fairly close divisions. But opponents of same-sex marriage note that polls usually understate the actual vote for such a ban.
Beyond that, efforts to put a ban on state ballots are starting to fall short, both in the legislatures and in citizens' initiatives. In eight states, including Maryland, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, proposals calling for a ballot referendum banning same-sex marriage failed to pass the legislature this year. In California and Florida, opponents of same-sex marriage were unable to collect enough signatures to put an initiative on the ballot this fall.
In Illinois, groups opposing same-sex marriage submitted 347,000 signatures for their ballot proposal, but volunteers who support the unions scrutinized every name and challenged so many that the State Board of Elections refused to certify the proposal. Opponents are appealing that ruling.
Opponents of same-sex marriage have been cheered by a series of recent court decisions in their favor. On Friday, a federal appeals court upheld a measure approved by Nebraska voters in 2000 that bars same-sex marriage and also denies gay partners legal benefits that come with marriage. That reversed the ruling of a lower federal court, which had voided the Nebraska law.
Tennessee's Supreme Court, also on Friday, ruled that a proposal to ban same-sex marriage can be on the November ballot.
Earlier this month, the highest state courts in New York and Georgia rejected arguments that a denial of marriage rights to gays violates the principle of equal rights under law.
In the electoral arena, most of the ballot issues this November fall into two categories. One approach is a simple definition of marriage. For example, the wording suggested by Colorado-based Focus on the Family declares, "Only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in this state."
Other measures go further, outlawing "civil unions" and denying same-sex couples the legal and tax benefits that married heterosexual couples receive.
The most complex ballot this year on the issue will be in Colorado, where at least two and perhaps four competing measures will face voters.
Opponents there are expected to put up a one-sentence initiative defining marriage as a union of one man and one woman. Supporters decided that they probably could not defeat that proposal, so they put a separate measure on the ballot that would legalize "domestic partnerships" for same-sex couples, giving them various financial, insurance and family benefits restricted to married heterosexual couples.
"We've decided to put most our money and effort into the campaign for domestic partnerships," said Sean Duffy, a Republican consultant in Denver who heads Coloradans for Fairness and Equality, which supports same-sex marriage. "It's possible that we could defeat one-man one-woman here, but we've decided to focus our effort on passing our domestic-partnership plan instead."
To counter the domestic-partnership proposal, opponents of gay rights are soliciting signatures for a "no legal status" ballot initiative, which would prohibit the state from "creating any legal status similar to marriage." If that measure makes the ballot, Duffy said, his side will put up another initiative designed to exclude domestic partnerships from the no-legal-status law.
Opponents of same-sex marriage have repeatedly failed to win enough support in Congress for a federal constitutional amendment banning such unions. The Senate did not approve such an amendment last month. Nonetheless, the House has scheduled a vote for today, and there, too, the measure is expected to fall well short of approval.
As a result, opponents of same-sex marriage see state elections as the place to make their stand. "We expect to win every ballot issue this fall, as we've done in the past, and keep our momentum for protecting traditional marriages," said Moeller, of American Values.
But supporters are seeking a breakthrough this year. "I think Americans look at Massachusetts and say, 'Well, Massachusetts is different,' " said Luna, of the Human Rights Campaign. "But let it happen in Washington or Wisconsin and people will say, 'Okay, this isn't so different, it's not the end of the world to give everybody equal marriage rights."