Fenty Emerges From D.C. Pack

The telephone poll of 1,350 randomly sampled D.C. adults included 1,030 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for questions asked of all voters, and of 4.5 percentage points for those who are considered most likely to vote in the Democratic primary.

As in previous polls, a large racial disparity exists. Blacks are much more likely than whites to be pessimistic about the city's future, and half disapprove of the job Williams has done. In the chairman's race, African American likely voters split 55 percent to 28 percent in favor of Gray, who is black, and white likely voters support Patterson, who is white, 56 percent to 21 percent.

But the racial divide is largely absent in the mayor's contest. Although Fenty draws more support than Cropp among white voters, he also has slightly more black support. In past elections, a racial disparity was far more pronounced, even when all the candidates were black, as they are now.

Zeal vs. Experience

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Fenty's apparent ability to bridge that gap is one of the things that has Connie Watts excited about his candidacy.

"I think he's exceedingly intelligent, and he brings people together," said the 40-year-old consultant, who lives in Ward 5. "He will have a diverse constituency. I mean, I think he's really got it all."

Fenty has run a disciplined, neighborhood-by-neighborhood campaign that appears to be paying off. "He's been to my door" to ask for support, Watts said in a telephone interview. "His campaign people are in my neighborhood right now."

In a poll filled with good news for Fenty, Watts and voters like her might be the best: 56 percent of those who say they'll vote for the council member say they support him "strongly." By contrast, nearly 60 percent of those in Cropp's column say they support her only "somewhat."

Fenty's youthfulness and relative inexperience have drawn barbs from Cropp and Williams but appear to be playing well among some voters: Fenty holds large leads over Cropp among new residents, parents, people who think the city is on the wrong track and voters who say schools should be the next mayor's top priority.

Fenty also does better among those who are wealthier, more educated and living in the Northwest neighborhoods he has represented for nearly six years. And he has a healthy lead among people such as Watts, who are disillusioned with Williams.

Cropp is running stronger among those with lower incomes and less education. She is essentially tied with Fenty among voters 50 to 64 and has her largest lead -- 10 percentage points -- among voters 65 and older.

William Herron, 64, is solidly in Cropp's camp. Asked why he supports her, Herron was succinct: "Williams's endorsement. Experience."

Herron said Williams has made vast improvements in the city -- "I can look out my window and see it," the Ward 2 resident said -- and he wants the next mayor to continue along the same path. He believes Cropp is the best candidate to do it.