By Robert Barnes and Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, July 23, 2006; A01
D.C. Council member Adrian M. Fenty has opened a clear lead in his campaign to become Washington's next mayor, according to a new Washington Post poll that shows that District voters are alarmed about crime, more despondent than ever about public schools and increasingly anxious that the city is heading in the wrong direction.
Seven weeks before the Sept. 12 Democratic primary, the poll indicates a two-person race between Fenty, 35, a second-term council member from Ward 4, and longtime council Chairman Linda W. Cropp, 58. Among all Democratic voters surveyed, Fenty leads Cropp 39 percent to 31 percent, and his margin jumps to 10 percentage points among those considered most likely to vote.
None of the three other major candidates received more than 8 percent support in the poll; only about one in 10 voters surveyed say they are undecided.
The citywide race to replace Cropp as council chairman appears to be close: Council freshman Vincent C. Gray (D-Ward 7) narrowly leads Kathy Patterson (D-Ward 3), who took office in 1995, among likely voters, 43 percent to 38 percent.
The poll was conducted July 13-18 as a string of killings and robberies rocked the city and District officials declared a crime emergency. Not surprisingly, crime and violence rank as the city's biggest problems among 38 percent of voters. About a quarter of voters put improving schools at the top of the list, and 16 percent say their primary concerns are housing costs and affordable homes for the middle class and the poor.
Fenty, who was knocking on doors in Southeast Washington yesterday, said he was pleased with his showing in the poll and is not concerned that his front-runner status could make him a target for attack.
"I'm going to keep my campaign in the same strategy we've had from Day One, literally spending as much time as I can talking to voters in the District of Columbia," Fenty said. "We really subscribe to the philosophy that you take nothing for granted and you run a campaign as if you're 10 points behind."
Cropp, who was greeting voters in Ward 5, declined to interrupt her campaign schedule to comment on the poll. "It's a poll, not a crisis," spokesman Ron Eckstein said.
Despite Fenty's apparent lead, Eckstein said voters ultimately will distinguish "between a candidate with proven experience and an unproven candidate who doesn't even think there's a neighborhood crime problem," a reference to Fenty's decision to vote against the mayor's emergency crime package last week.
"Voters face a clear choice as they think about the stakes for our city," Eckstein said. "We're confident they'll choose Linda Cropp."
Whoever wins will face a conflicted constituency, pleased with the city's physical and economic resurgence but worried about its impact on the middle class and poor. Slightly more city residents say the District is on the wrong track than say it is headed in the right direction, the most pessimistic showing of Mayor Anthony A. Williams's tenure; six years ago, nearly 70 percent were optimistic. Only a third say that the quality of life is improving, the lowest number in a Post survey since Marion Barry headed a nearly bankrupt municipal government in 1997.
Public support of Williams (D) has dimmed as well. Although a majority still approve of Williams's job performance, his numbers have declined steadily since he took office. Most voters -- 55 percent -- now say they are looking for a mayor who will set the city "moving in a new direction" from the one Williams charted.
The telephone poll of 1,350 randomly sampled D.C. adults included 1,030 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for questions asked of all voters, and of 4.5 percentage points for those who are considered most likely to vote in the Democratic primary.
As in previous polls, a large racial disparity exists. Blacks are much more likely than whites to be pessimistic about the city's future, and half disapprove of the job Williams has done. In the chairman's race, African American likely voters split 55 percent to 28 percent in favor of Gray, who is black, and white likely voters support Patterson, who is white, 56 percent to 21 percent.
But the racial divide is largely absent in the mayor's contest. Although Fenty draws more support than Cropp among white voters, he also has slightly more black support. In past elections, a racial disparity was far more pronounced, even when all the candidates were black, as they are now.
Zeal vs. ExperienceFenty's apparent ability to bridge that gap is one of the things that has Connie Watts excited about his candidacy.
"I think he's exceedingly intelligent, and he brings people together," said the 40-year-old consultant, who lives in Ward 5. "He will have a diverse constituency. I mean, I think he's really got it all."
Fenty has run a disciplined, neighborhood-by-neighborhood campaign that appears to be paying off. "He's been to my door" to ask for support, Watts said in a telephone interview. "His campaign people are in my neighborhood right now."
In a poll filled with good news for Fenty, Watts and voters like her might be the best: 56 percent of those who say they'll vote for the council member say they support him "strongly." By contrast, nearly 60 percent of those in Cropp's column say they support her only "somewhat."
Fenty's youthfulness and relative inexperience have drawn barbs from Cropp and Williams but appear to be playing well among some voters: Fenty holds large leads over Cropp among new residents, parents, people who think the city is on the wrong track and voters who say schools should be the next mayor's top priority.
Fenty also does better among those who are wealthier, more educated and living in the Northwest neighborhoods he has represented for nearly six years. And he has a healthy lead among people such as Watts, who are disillusioned with Williams.
Cropp is running stronger among those with lower incomes and less education. She is essentially tied with Fenty among voters 50 to 64 and has her largest lead -- 10 percentage points -- among voters 65 and older.
William Herron, 64, is solidly in Cropp's camp. Asked why he supports her, Herron was succinct: "Williams's endorsement. Experience."
Herron said Williams has made vast improvements in the city -- "I can look out my window and see it," the Ward 2 resident said -- and he wants the next mayor to continue along the same path. He believes Cropp is the best candidate to do it.
"I think she's as good as it gets in Washington, D.C. She's got the experience," he said.
So far, the other major candidates -- retired Verizon executive Marie C. Johns, Ward 5 council member Vincent B. Orange Sr. and lobbyist Michael A. Brown -- appear to have made little impact. More than half of Democratic voters say they don't know enough about Johns and Brown to form an opinion, and 41 percent say the same of Orange.
Still, mayoral races are notoriously volatile in the District, particularly in contests with so many contenders and no incumbent. Cropp and Fenty each has raised more than $1.75 million, and both are poised to spend much of it on mailings, broadcast ads and voter drives in the campaign's final days.
Although Fenty appears to have built an impressive core of solid popular support, Cropp has won virtually every major endorsement from business, labor and the political establishment, including Williams. But the poll shows that she has yet to capitalize on those advantages: Even among those who approve of the job Williams has done, Fenty holds a slim lead.
Priorities ShiftAlthough the poll presents a picture of a somewhat disgruntled public, it shows bright spots.
Some issues that were priorities when Williams took office don't worry folks as much now. Six years ago, nearly one in five voters said improving city and social services should be the mayor's top priorities. That was reduced to one in 20 voters in the current poll. Similarly, the economy was a priority for 14 percent of voters in 2002; that number today is 5 percent.
A majority of voters are happy with the city's parks and recreation services, a growing number approve of the upkeep of city streets and a onetime symbol of the city's dysfunction -- the Department of Motor Vehicles -- gets high marks.
Overall, voters say overwhelmingly that the District's economic revival has been good for the city as a whole, for the middle class, for neighborhoods, for local businesses and for people like them.
But underlying that sense of progress is a growing feeling of unease.
Although nearly three in four residents say they feel safe in their neighborhoods, they are worried about the city's ability to protect them. Although 53 percent of voters say the police department is doing a good or excellent job, that is down from 66 percent four years ago. Only one in three voters is confident in the city's response to 911 emergency calls, and 35 percent say they feel good about the District's ability to respond to a large-scale terrorist attack. That's a drop of nearly 20 percentage points since 2002.
Only 15 percent of voters are happy with the District's public schools, the lowest number ever recorded in a Post poll. People are particularly upset about shabby schoolhouses, violence and crime in the hallways, disruptive students and a lack of parental involvement. Williams has lamented his lack of authority over the schools, but eight in 10 voters believe the mayor has substantial power to improve education.
Even the bright spots have shadows. Although most voters applaud the city's redevelopment, they are increasingly worried that an influx of affluent residents, skyrocketing housing costs and rising property taxes have been harmful to many longtime residents, particularly blacks and the poor.
Six years ago, 64 percent of voters thought redevelopment was "mainly good" for the poor; only 35 percent think so now. And nearly half of black voters think gentrification has been harmful for African Americans.
"Those of us that work in the city who don't make $100,000 still should be able to live in this city," said C. Tyson, 62, who owns a home in the District's Brookland neighborhood. Tyson said his 28-year-old daughter can't afford to move out of his house unless she leaves the District. And for him, the rising pressure of property taxes has become a "sacrifice."
"At the rate this is going down, all these people are going to be pushed out," Tyson said. "And I don't think that's fair to those of us who have lived here and paid taxes for 32, 35 years."
Other voters surveyed had similar concerns. One in four worry they might be forced to move because of redevelopment in their neighborhood, and half say they would have to look beyond the District's borders to find something affordable. Seventy percent of renters in the survey say they would have to move to the suburbs to buy a home.
"We're running low-income and moderate-income families out of the city," said David C. Ruffin, a freelance journalist who lives on Capitol Hill.
Ruffin, former president of D.C. Habitat for Humanity, has a professional interest in affordable housing. But he's got a personal interest, too: His landlord, he said, is trying to push him and his neighbors out of the apartment building where he has lived for 20 years so it can be rehabbed and sold as condominium units or rented for much more money.
The building boom "means more revenue for the city and all that. And it's good for the tax base," Ruffin said. "But this should be a city that has a diverse population with a broad range of incomes. It shouldn't mean that moderate or low-income people are relegated to living outside the city."
Concern about society's most vulnerable was a recurring theme in the poll, best captured by one startling statistic: Seventy percent of voters give the District government failing marks for its treatment of the disadvantaged and the poor.
Assistant polling director Claudia Deane contributed to this report.