Sandinista Aims for Comeback in Nicaragua

Paradoxically, the worst-case scenario for Ortega could be for Jarquín's campaign to fizzle completely. Many of the MRS's voters are centrists who strongly dislike both Ortega and the original Liberal Party and could find a more palatable alternative in Eduardo Montealegre, who heads the breakaway Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance.

Montealegre, 51, appears to be benefiting from the disaffection of many on the right, polling between 22 to 28 percent, compared to Liberal candidate José Rizo's 13 to 21 percent.

The split within the Liberal Party dates to the period shortly after Bolaños took office in 2002, when the new president initiated corruption investigations against his powerful predecessor, Arnoldo Alemán.

Alemán, 60, was convicted in December 2003 and sentenced to 20 years on corruption charges involving $100 million in public funds, but retains formidable influence in the party.

Bolaños, meanwhile, was expelled from the Liberal Party and forced to form the breakaway party. Ever since, he has been fending off efforts by the Liberals and Ortega's Sandinistas -- who control the National Assembly jointly -- to curb his presidential powers and impeach him.

Many Nicaraguans across the political spectrum have grown tired of the power-sharing arrangement between the two parties, known here as el pacto or the pact, saying it has transformed Nicaragua into a false democracy in which the bosses of the two nominally competing parties tolerate each other's corruption.

"They have forgotten us," said Lidia Jimenez, 56, a former voter for the Liberals, who came to hear Montealegre speak in a square in the northern mountain town of Somoto. "We have so many needs, but there is not a single peso out here. . . . That's why four of my children have gone to work in Costa Rica."

Both Ortega and Jarquín propose erasing the debt held by Nicaraguan farmers, subsidizing industries and generally looking for ways to tame what Ortega refers to as "wild capitalism."

But Ortega has sought to make clear that his Marxist days are over, repeatedly touting the value of a "free but just market."

Ortega has also tried to capitalize on the support he has received from Venezuela's Chávez, who, flush with oil wealth, is seeking to expand his brand of populism as a counterweight to U.S. influence in Latin America.

In addition to the oil deal, Chávez has arranged to distribute fertilizer at cut-rate prices to Nicaraguan farmers through an association allied with the Sandinistas.

The oil shipment, meanwhile, has been held up by logistical and financial disputes between Bolaños's government and Venezuela, leading Ortega to complain that he is the only one trying to help the Nicaraguan people.

That claim has resonated in a nation where gasoline is selling for nearly $5 a gallon and where even the capital experiences periodic power outages.

"This oil would be a benefit to the whole country independent of any party. The government is failing us by not accepting it," said Efrain Sequeida, 54, a building contractor who came to the plaza in Managua to hear Ortega speak.

But there are signs that Chávez's assistance could backfire. In a recent poll commissioned by the Nicaraguan weekly Confidencial, 49 percent of Nicaraguans said they thought Venezuela was interfering. And there are rumors that Chávez is directly financing Ortega's campaign -- fueled by the abundance of enormous posters of Ortega's smiling face across not merely the capital but also in the countryside.

"No other candidate has those kinds of resources. Where is he getting it from?" Montealegre asked during an interview on the way to Somoto.

However, the same Confidencial poll also found that 46 percent of Nicaraguans have concerns about interference by U.S. officials -- who have made no effort to hide their distaste for both Ortega and Alemán.

The U.S. ambassador, Paul A. Trivelli, raised eyebrows last spring when he met with members of Montealegre's and Rizo's camps to try to persuade them to reconcile lest they split the anti-Ortega vote.

"Venezuela has been much smarter in its policy than the United States," said Chamorro, editor of Confidencial. "The Venezuelan ambassador keeps a very low profile. . . . By contrast, the United States comes across as arrogant. Trivelli behaves like a political actor who opines almost every day on who should be president."