In Mexico, Strains Along Democracy's Path

Contested Vote Puts Electoral Reforms, Institutions to Test

Supporters of Andrés Manuel López Obrador demand a vote recount during a protest at Mexico City's stock exchange. (By Alexandre Meneghini -- Associated Press)

MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's political future -- thrown into a state of uncertainty by a three-week electoral crisis -- will be decided in a boat-shaped building in this city's working-class south.

The modernist structure did not exist in 1988 during Mexico's previous disputed presidential election. Nor did the seven-magistrate electoral court it houses. Nor did a genuine Mexican democracy.

Now, pressures are building on Mexico to hold together that democratic system, which is still in its infancy six years after the end of one-party rule and a little over a decade after broad electoral reforms were enacted. The strain has raised questions about the integrity of vote-counters, and the electoral court faces major challenges ahead.

"Our transition to democracy is now entering a moment of great difficulty, of great danger," said Roger Bartra, a self-described leftist historian in Mexico City.

Stoked by ever-more incendiary rhetoric, the capital has tensed since the July 2 presidential balloting ended with a result that remains disputed. Felipe Calderón, dubbed the "virtual" winner by the Mexican news media, redoubled security after the parked sport-utility vehicle he was sitting in was kicked by protesters screaming obscenities. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the runner-up, has called for "peaceful civil resistance." And there are fears that López Obrador's mostly poor followers could resort to violence if their calls for a full recount fail.

Dozens of large posters, installed downtown by well-known artists who support a recount, have been torn apart, presumably by vandals who don't. Other demonstrators who want a recount have gone on a hunger strike and moved into tents outside the electoral court, known as the Federal Judicial Electoral Tribunal.

The votes were counted by the 16-year-old Federal Electoral Institute, an internationally respected government body. López Obrador accuses the institute of rigging computers to ensure Calderón's half-percentage-point victory and of ignoring manipulation of vote tally sheets in tens of thousands of polling places. His complaints, and Calderón's counterarguments, will be heard by the 10-year-old electoral tribunal, which has until Sept. 6 to certify a winner.

"It's good that we have the institutions to channel the challenges," said Carlos Heredia, who became a leading adviser to candidate Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas after his loss in the contested 1988 presidential election. "What has me concerned is whether the institutions have the confidence of the citizenry -- that's the big question in the air."

A huge López Obrador rally earlier this month suggested that at least some do not have faith in the process. The candidate's supporters lampooned the system, booing each time the name of the electoral institute's chief, Luis Carlos Ugalde, was mentioned. Homemade banners read "No to the Institute of Electoral Fraud," and a sign, accompanied by a traditional Mexican skeleton figure, said "Democracy is dead."

Meanwhile, demonstrators have accused President Vicente Fox, of Calderón's National Action Party, of siding with Calderón and trying to limit their free-speech rights. Fox and Ugalde have responded to the attacks by vigorously defending the integrity of the electoral system.

But there are serious questions about the integrity of the elections court. A month before the election, the court's chief magistrate, Leonel Castillo, told Milenio magazine that the court would reject any recount request, a statement that would likely have led to demands for a recusal in a U.S. case.

Both the electoral institute, known as IFE, and the tribunal were created in the reform movement that followed international condemnation of the 1988 presidential election, which was won by the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, immortalized as "the perfect dictatorship" by author Mario Vargas Llosa.