A Mammoth Wealth Transfer Awaits the Area, Study Predicts

The study assumes that household wealth will increase at the same rate as the economy and gives three estimates: that the economy will grow at annualized rates of 2, 3 or 4 percent. Chevy Chase Trust said it is focusing on the 3 percent growth rate because it most closely reflects historical trends.

But although estates in the region are expected to be larger than the national average, they'll take a bit longer to trickle down to heirs because local household heads are younger, on average, than nationally.

In households with a net worth of $500,000 to just less than $1 million, the average age of the household head is 54.6 years, compared with a national average of 56.6.

The study could increase the comfort level of some prospective heirs and area jurisdictions.

The numbers "can give a more realistic sense of the abundance in their community," Schervish said.

For charities, the study is nothing but good news. It predicts that area households will bequeath 19 percent of their assets to nonprofit organizations and charities.

Terri Freeman, president of the Community Foundation for the National Capital Region, said the news will reassure local nonprofit groups, which have struggled in recent years with stagnant funding.

Now, Freeman said, "we know there is an awful lot of wealth here, and it's going to be around for a while."

Some donors have already designated their favorite charities in their wills.

Jim Lafond, 64, a retired managing partner at the accounting firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers, said he plans to leave a bequest "north of six figures" to several local nonprofit organizations, including the Community Foundation and the Washington Performing Arts Society.

"I give some now, but I also think it's important to give some later," Lafond said.

"I don't think it's an 'either/or.' It's an 'and.' "

Betsy Johnson, director of the Center for Nonprofit Advancement in the District, said she's hopeful that as wealth flows to younger generations, which have been schooled on community service, they will be more attentive to local charities.

"I really think it's going to be easier [to raise money] because these folks are already coming in with a sense of giving and giving back," Johnson said.

One big unknown: how much of the wealth will stay in the Washington area. Many residents have deep ties elsewhere in the country, and when they die, their assets might move out of town.

Frank Migala, 73, a retired tax preparer who lives in Northwest Washington, said he plans to leave his estate to relatives who live in Chicago, Florida and Germany. Migala's wife died eight years ago, they had no children and no other relatives are close by, Migala said.

Large numbers of affluent residents could move elsewhere and take their estates with them, a factor that could affect what local charities receive.

More than 150 communities across the country have launched "Leave a Legacy" campaigns to encourage retirees to remember local charities in their wills.

The Williamsburg Community Trust in Williamsburg, whose retirement communities are attracting more seniors from the Washington area, recently distributed 22,000 copies of a 66-page "Charitable Giving Guide."

"The message is simple: to prompt people to give a gift to [local] philanthropy in their will," said Nancy Sullivan, executive director of the trust.

But at the City of Fairfax Senior Center, a dozen retirees sharing coffee and doughnuts last week agreed that future bequests could fall victim to everyday fiscal realities.

"Nursing home before charity, in my opinion," said Dick Fulton, a retired federal employee.

Ralph Smith, 73, a retired Navy captain, said he and his wife Dorothy, also 73, have helped their four children with car purchases and down payments on homes. If needed, he said, they will extend the same kind of financial assistance to their six grandchildren.

"They need it now, not when I'm gone," he said.