Will Cuban Oil Find Break U.S. Embargo?

Cuban President Fidel Castro addresses a crowd of Latin American students gathered in Pedernales,in Holguin province, Cuba, for the anniversary of the attack on the Moncada barracks Wednesday, July 26, 2006. The attack, in 1953, is said to be the beginning of the Cuban Revolution.(AP Photo/ Javier Galeano) (Javier Galeano - AP)

"I've always argued that we would keep the Cuban embargo in place until we got to the point where it started to cost us something." Today, he adds, "we're almost there."

Says Phil Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute, a think tank in Arlington, Va., that defends limited government and free trade, and a Cuba expert: "If Cuba discovers a lot of oil and becomes an oil exporter, the embargo almost becomes an absurdity."

Kirby Jones, founder and president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade Association in Washington, D.C., which has long sought an end to the trade ban, says the reality of Cuba as an oil producer makes the embargo too costly a policy to keep.

"Our choice is: Are we going to let those other countries take that oil? Or are we going to look at our strategic interests and recognize that very close to our shores is a substantial quantity of oil that is going to be exploited?"

Cuba has been oil hunting, not always successfully, for decades.

With Soviet help, it discovered the Varadero Oil Field in 1971. This reservoir, within 5 miles of Cuba's northern coast, today yields about 40 percent of Cuba's total production _ roughly 75,000 barrels a day of poor-quality, heavy, sour crude.

In July 2004, however, the Spanish oil company Repsol-YPF, in partnership with Cuba's state oil company, CUPET, identified five fields it classified as "high-quality" in the deep water of the Florida Straits, 20 miles northeast of Havana.

Seven months later, a report by the U.S. Geological Survey confirmed it: The North Cuba Basin held a substantial quantity of oil _ 4.6 billion to 9.3 billion barrels of crude and 9.8 trillion to 21.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Cuba wasted no time, dividing the 74,000 square mile (120,000 square kilometer) area into 59 exploration blocks, and then welcoming foreign oil conglomerates with offers of production-sharing agreements.

Oil companies from China and Canada, already prospecting for oil along Cuba's coast, began talks with Cuban energy officials about investments in deep-water operations.

Then, in May, Spain's Repsol-YPF announced it was partnering with India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp., and Norsk Hydro ASA of Norway to explore for oil and gas in six of the 59 deep-water blocks along Cuba's maritime border with the United States. (Sherritt International Corp., the Canadian oil company, has acquired exploration rights in four of the deep-sea blocks.)

That raised the eyebrows of many an oil executive, says Jorge Pinon, a former senior executive with Amoco Oil and a research associate at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami.

Norsk and ONGC are among a select group of companies with deep-water know-how and technology, so when they signed on with the Spanish, "everyone else said, 'Maybe we better take a look at Cuba again.'"