Lieberman's Eroding Base

Lieberman supporters rally in Rocky Hill, Conn., for the candidate, whose potpourri politics alienate many Democrats. (By Bob Child -- Associated Press)

As the Iraq war unfolded and controversies flared over intelligence failures and the commitment of U.S. forces, Democrats such as Stolberg longed for their senator to take a more combative approach with the White House. Bush's embrace of Lieberman the night of the president's 2005 State of the Union address -- a moment that has come to be called "the Kiss" -- is one of the most vivid images of the Connecticut campaign. In a speech last December, Lieberman warned Democrats that "in matters of war, we undermine presidential credibility at our nation's peril."

"You can want to be liked by some people, but there are a few you have to write off," Stolberg said. "Joe wants to be loved by the devil, too."

Voters express a similar anguish. While Lieberman was working the crowd at a Norwalk Italian festival, he was greeted by Mike Vano Jr., an 80-year-old Navy World War II veteran. After shaking the senator's hand, Vano conceded that he could not decide which Democrat will get his vote. "I like the man. I like what he's done," Vano said of Lieberman. "But I don't like that war."

At a campaign stop last Monday at Sweet Rexie's, a candy store in South Norwalk, Conn., Sen. Barbara Boxer, a liberal California Democrat, vouched for Lieberman's Democratic bona fides before a group of local businesswomen. Boxer's visit was part of an effort by the Lieberman camp to convince Connecticut Democrats that he is still one of them.

"This is what I know," Boxer said. "You've got a good Democrat here." At a rally later that day in Waterbury, former president Bill Clinton assured 2,000 Lieberman supporters: "He is a good Democrat, he is a good man, and he'll do you proud."

A July 20 Quinnipiac University survey showed likely Democratic primary voters favoring Lamont 51 percent to 47 percent over Lieberman, a lead that is statistically insignificant because it falls within the margin of error. Lieberman trails among voters making over $30,000 per year, those with college degrees, and all age groups except senior citizens. Lieberman had held substantial leads in previous polls.

Some political observers think the seeds of Lieberman's problems with Connecticut voters were planted in 2000, when Al Gore picked him as his vice presidential running mate and as a precaution Lieberman refused to give up his bid for a third Senate term. "It's called covering your bases, rather than being a loyal party guy," said John M. Orman, a Fairfield University politics professor who briefly challenged Lieberman before Lamont entered the picture.

While laying the foundation for his own presidential bid in 2004, Lieberman criticized Gore for mishandling their 2000 campaign by sounding a populist tone instead of appealing more to centrists. He showed interest in the Republicans' plan for overhauling Social Security, he voted for a Republican energy bill that Democrats decried, he supported federal intervention in the Terri Schiavo right-to-die case, and he helped clear the path for a vote on Samuel A. Alito Jr.'s Supreme Court confirmation -- although he voted against Alito.

But Lieberman has helped his party on many issues. He is a strong supporter of abortion rights, opposed the Bush tax cuts, and is considered a friend to environmental, gay and lesbian, and labor causes. Much to his frustration, critics have pushed all that into the background.

"The partisanship and the war have created a different situation, one [Lieberman] hasn't seen before," said Scott L. McLean, political science chairman at Quinnipiac. "Prior to the Iraq war, you couldn't pin him down."

Lieberman, the son of a Stamford liquor-store owner, began his career as an ambitious progressive. But he shed his liberal image after losing a 1980 House race, emerging as a law-and-order moderate during a stint as Connecticut attorney general. Lieberman took on phony charities, blocked an off-track betting parlor, and criticized "ladies' night" bar specials for discriminating against men. When he took on Sen. Lowell P. Weicker Jr. in 1988, he ran so far to the right of the moderate Republican that conservative icon William F. Buckley Jr. pitched in as a Lieberman fundraiser.

In the final days before the Aug. 8 primary, Lieberman is summing up his message to voters this way: "Mr. and Mrs. Connecticut, I hope you'll respect me, even if you don't agree with me."

His supporters cite the senator's breadth of experience and character as the main reasons they are sticking with him. Patricia Mulhall, who attended the Clinton rally, said she forgives Lieberman's perceived transgressions for the sake of his decency and gravitas. "I was disappointed with some of his votes, but I understand," said Mulhall, Waterbury's Democratic registrar.

The silver lining for Lieberman is that he remains popular with unaffiliated moderates and GOP voters, a large slice of the Connecticut electorate. The July Quinnipiac poll indicated he would easily win a three-way race in November, against Lamont and the Republican nominee, Alan Schlesinger.

Then again, the primary also looked like a cakewalk for Lieberman until recently. As Lieberman was leaving Sweet Rexie's with Boxer, he bumped into Richard Stowe, who was walking by the store. "Time to go from Iraq," Stowe told the senator politely. Stowe is a Republican, but he is supporting Lamont.