By Craig Timberg
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, August 1, 2006; A14
KINSHASA, Congo, July 31 -- Congolese voters appeared to be deeply divided in Sunday's historic election, casting ballots along geographic lines and possibly sending the presidential contest into a runoff, according to analysts studying partial returns.
Congo's Independent Electoral Commission has declined to release any official results until every ballot is counted across the sprawling, underdeveloped nation. But handwritten tallies were available at many of the 50,000 polling places across the country, and politicians, diplomats and analysts tabulated results throughout the day.
The picture they offered in interviews was of a two-candidate race, with incumbent President Joseph Kabila winning in Congo's densely populated east and Jean-Pierre Bemba, a former rebel leader and one of four vice presidents, winning in the capital, Kinshasa, and other western areas.
Results in the broad middle of the nation were less clear, with other candidates making strong showings in some places. The ballot included more than 30 candidates. At least five of them received significant vote totals, analysts said, and if no candidate gets a majority, the top two finishers will face each other in a runoff on Oct. 29.
"We can't avoid a second round because the voters are divided among four or five candidates," said Mike Mukebayi, publisher of the weekly Africa News, based in Kinshasa. "If there is a candidate who got 50 percent, it would be a surprise."
Among those claiming a detailed knowledge of the results was Bemba, who in comments to a group of reporters said he had won six of Congo's 11 provinces and received the most votes overall. He asserted that Kabila won only two provinces outright and remained in tight battles in three others.
"I will win," Bemba said. "It will be in the first round or the second round."
Kabila's supporters acknowledge that he fared poorly in Kinshasa and other western areas but say he gained a massive advantage in heavily populated eastern cities such as Goma and Bukavu. Congo's eastern third contains nearly half of the nation's registered voters and has endured the worst of the warfare and lingering violence of the past nine years.
Vital Kamerhe, secretary general of Kabila's party, said Kabila had won in all five easternmost provinces -- often by very wide margins -- and in one central province. In Bukavu, Kamerhe said, "People are now in the street singing and saying that Kabila is the winner."
Meanwhile, voting moved into a second day in the central diamond-mining city of Mbuji-Mayi, one of Congo's largest cities, because several polling places had been burned down Sunday. The vandals were believed to be supporters of veteran politician Etienne Tshisekedi, an election official told the Associated Press.
The prospect of a runoff is not relished by Kabila supporters. His government has provided little in tangible results for many Congolese, and any candidate who faces him head-to-head may be able to consolidate the opposition.
Sunday's elections were the first multiparty balloting here since 1960 and were widely touted by the United Nations, the United States and many Congolese as a crucial step toward stability for a country that has experienced little but war, destruction and devastating poverty since the toppling of strongman Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997.
"Everything turned out very well," said political analyst Elikia Mbokolo. "It is really fantastic to see. The people want to have the vote."
Special correspondent Claude Kamanga Mutond contributed to this report.