Advance, Retreat or Punt

By Al Kamen
Wednesday, August 2, 2006

United Nations Ambassador John R. Bolton 's Senate confirmation seemed to be a lock after he obtained a ringing endorsement from a former skeptic, Sen. George V. Voinovich (R-Ohio).

But then the Foreign Relations Committee held off a vote until September, and Hill chatter has it that maybe confirmation of Bolton's temporary appointment isn't a done deal after all. The delay, requested by the Democrats, was automatically granted under committee rules. This puts the confirmation vote into the Senate silly season -- fall of an election year.

The buzz is that three Republicans might be wavering: Sens. Chuck Hagel (Neb.), Lincoln D. Chafee (R.I.) and John E. Sununu (N.H.). Hagel, who voted to stop a filibuster against Bolton last year, pointedly said last week that he was keeping his options open. (Probably doesn't help that Bolton allegedly once tried to have Hagel's top foreign affairs aide removed from his old State Department job.)

In addition, Chafee, if he wins renomination in the Sept. 12 primary, may be thinking he might have to move left to win in the general election and vote against confirmation. There's chatter that Sununu was miffed about some statements Bolton made regarding Israel's move into Lebanon.

But Bolton backers on Foreign Relations said the confirmation is on track and the delay won't affect it. The White House thinks all the Republicans are good to go. Then there's Democratic Sen. Charles E. Schumer 's declaration Sunday that another filibuster against Bolton likely wouldn't fly. (A report that New York's other senator might vote for Bolton is seen as dubious.)

Still, things can get weird up there in the fall.

Senate Contests More D Than R

Political pundits will be focusing on the "key" congressional races in the next few months, those important "bellwether" races that will determine who controls Congress.

But there are other fine races to follow, good news races that the press may likely all but ignore.

For example, there's an excellent Senate race in Wisconsin, where incumbent Herb Kohl (D) is battling Republican Robert Gerald Lorge , a farmer and lawyer, who has been sued by a woman who claimed that he molested her when she was 3 years old. Lorge called the allegations "impossible and frivolous." They're certainly not helpful.

This had promised to be an interesting race if popular former GOP governor Tommy G. Thompson , as many hoped, had jumped in. Other good prospects also backed out. One poll last month showed Kohl, not exactly a firebrand orator, getting 42 percent of the vote against Lorge -- and that's among Republicans.

Another Senate race, Florida Rep. Katherine Harris (R) against incumbent Bill Nelson (D), should have been winnable for Republicans. Now it looks as if it will be of huge interest if only to see how many more campaign managers she'll go through.

Two other races find Republicans acting like Democrats.

The Montana race between Sen. Conrad Burns (R) and Democrat Jon Tester is still said to be tight, but Burns is working hard to change that. His latest effort, Montana newspapers reported, found him bashing an elite team of Augusta, Va., firefighters who had been helping fight a large eastern Montana blaze. These were not the desk-bound brass, mind you, but the folks who dig trenches in 100-degree heat. These firefighters are paid $8 to $12 an hour.

Burns, already dealing with allegations of coziness with former GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff , who pleaded guilty to corruption charges, confronted a member of the team in the Billings airport en route home and said he was "not doing a . . . damned thing" and that team members just "sit around" on the job. That earned Burns a blistering rebuke from the head of the state firemen's association, who said the senator had "fallen out of touch with the folks he's supposed to be representing."

Burns has apologized. But a couple of more shots like that and this race could become a fun one.

Then there's Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum 's great new TV ad about how "even al-Jazeera endorsed Democrat Bob Casey Jr ." and asking, "Whose side is he on anyway?"

GOP bloggers and Santorum aides were "giddy" last week, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, passing around the "al-jazeerah.info" endorsement of Casey. Santorum also talked about it.

Small problem. It wasn't the Middle East-based news network -- which has no "h" on al-Jazeera -- but rather a site based in Dalton, Ga. A Santorum spokeswoman said that didn't matter.

This one could also begin losing its "bellwether" status.

Going Public

As expected, President Bush has picked Susan E. Dudley , director of the regulatory studies program at George Mason University's anti-regulatory Mercatus Center, to head the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, which approves all environmental, health and safety and other government regulations at the president's Office of Management and Budget.

Randolph James Clerihue , former communications director of the Health Insurance Association of America and more recently assistant executive director for communications and public affairs at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., was tapped to be assistant secretary of labor for public affairs.