Against All Odds

Likewise, the Antiguans contended, the United States can bar citizens from using overseas gambling sites only if it bans domestic sites. Yet Congress has refused to enact a comprehensive ban -- in part because horse racing depends on phone and Internet wagers.

Gambling "preys on lower income classes," said Gary C. Hufbauer, a trade specialist at the Institute for International Economics, who opposes it. "But here we've had all this tolerance toward gambling -- Indian gambling, for example, in my native state of New Mexico. So if the U.S. is going to tolerate this amount of vice, while ruling out a foreign supplier of vice, it does seem to be . . . inconsistent" with trade rules.

WTO judges bought that argument. Antigua won a slam-dunk ruling in 2004, and though an appeals panel scaled it back, Washington was still in a tough spot. The final ruling essentially said that the United States must outlaw all forms of online gambling, including on horse racing, or Antigua wins.

The U.S. government has refused to concede defeat.

The Bush administration first vowed to secure legislation "clarifying" that all forms of online betting are illegal. But the horse racing industry has blocked such efforts on Capitol Hill.

Next, the administration cited testimony by the Justice Department in April claiming that all Internet wagering across state lines, including that on horses, violates existing laws. That was news to the horse racing industry, and it seems to have had little effect. Even so, the administration has pointed to the statement as evidence that the United States treats all online gambling the same.

Scoffing, the Antiguans are asking the WTO to declare that Washington is defying its ruling. Many experts expect Antigua to win again, after months of delay.

Then comes the hard part for Antigua.

The WTO cannot force a country to do anything. Even if found guilty, a country can refuse to change its trade practices. The WTO largely enforces its rulings by giving the victorious country the right to impose punitive duties on the loser's products.

That enforcement mechanism works for big, rich countries such as the United States because other nations fear losing the vast U.S. market. But Antigua's economy is so tiny that few U.S. companies would notice.

"The WTO gives the little guys clout, but it cannot guarantee symmetry of justice," said Claude Barfield, a trade expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

So the Antiguans plan to ask the WTO for the right to impose sanctions that would hurt -- namely, permission to copy and export U.S.-made DVDs, CDs and similar material. Hollywood is not amused.

It's unclear whether the WTO will allow Antigua to exact such a pound of flesh. For now, the Antiguans are trying shame, accusing the United States of being a scofflaw. If Washington refuses to obey WTO rulings, the Antiguans say, other countries may follow suit, undermining global trade.

Cohen, the convicted gambling tycoon, has finished his probation but will not say what he's doing. He has nothing but scorn for U.S. trade policymakers.

"They're so stubborn," he said. "They want all these commitments from other countries, and tell them, 'Oh yeah, we're all equal.' But when they lose, they run away."