Cuba for Dummies

Politics, a la revolución cubana , is on the planet to stay.

5. In a Transition, the Main Chaos Will Be Among Exiles. Cuban Americans have been lusting for the fall of Fidel -- and from their perspective, understandably so -- for such a long while that they forgot to organize past the oft-fantasized funeral. If last week's enigmatic play in Cuba has taught exiles anything at all, it is that the celebration may well be anticlimactic.

There are property claims, lawsuits, split families, and widely varying views on how and when exiles should reinsert themselves into Cuban politics. Without a consensus, the community will splinter.

6. Fidel Will Die -- Sort Of. On the island, the martyred Ché Guevara is the revolution's main icon. This is no accident. Fidel has not allowed any statues of himself to be erected in Cuba (a stunning display of discipline from a long-serving autocrat). When Fidel does go, there'll be no Hussein-like toppling of his marble likeness to symbolize the end of his era.

7. If You're Not Cuban, It's None of Your Business. The Cubans in Cuba will make up their minds how to handle the coming years and inevitable transitions.

Fidel and his ragtag forces were capable of taking Cuba in 1959 because its people were fed up with the system under U.S. proxy Fulgencio Batista. The whole mess will happen all over again if the Cubans are not left alone to determine their own political and social fate. If you do not believe this, read the poems of national hero José Martí.

Politics in Cuba is a family thing. Unless you're part of the family, stay out of it.

Lisa M. Wixon is the author of the novel "Dirty Blonde and Half Cuban."