Analysis: Lebanon War Hurting U.S. Goals

_ The push for democracy in other Arab regimes, already stalled, has ground to a halt. The United States is unlikely to pressure allies such as Saudi Arabia or Egypt for reform when it needs their help to end the crisis. Even many Arab reformers now believe the U.S. cares more about supporting Israel than anything else, including democracy.

Not everyone, of course, thinks U.S. goals are in a muddle.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says she believes the fighting, though painful, is the "birth pang of a new Middle East" _ meaning the bloodshed and disarming of Hezbollah are required before the region can move toward peace.

There is indeed a widely held view that the Arab world needs a shakeout before it can make progress toward democracy or peace _ to decide if it wants to follow Hezbollah and Iran or moderates such as the Palestinians' Abbas.

President Bush hinted at that when he called the Israel-Hezbollah fight part of a "a larger struggle between the forces of freedom and the forces of terror."

Still others believe some of the Arab support for Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, could wane once the bombing ends and those in Lebanon take a hard look at the damage.

William Brown, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, contends America and Europe could seize an opportunity if Israel managed to disable Hezbollah temporarily. Brown said the U.S. should try to push a comprehensive peace plan that involves Israel, the Palestinians, Syria and Iran once the fight is over.

But he is skeptical the United States has the ability or will.

"I wouldn't like to see Nasrallah emerge as a hero in all this," Brown said. "But it's a distinct possibility."

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Sally Buzbee is AP's chief of Middle East news, based in Cairo.