Lamont's Lead Slips On Eve of Primary
Poll Shows Lieberman 6 Points Behind in Conn.

By Shailagh Murray
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, August 8, 2006

HARTFORD, Conn., Aug. 7 -- Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman and his antiwar challenger, Ned Lamont, battled for votes the day before Tuesday's Democratic primary, racing from shipyards to Little League games as the gap between them appeared to tighten.

Lamont, a political novice who is challenging Lieberman over the incumbent's support of the Iraq war, started the day with a 5 a.m. visit to a New London hospital emergency room, while Lieberman served breakfast to firefighters and visited a New Haven construction site. The senator's mood brightened when a Quinnipiac University poll was released Monday morning showing that Lamont's 13-point lead from last week had shrunk, with Lamont now atop the race by 51 percent to 45 percent.

"It's terrible how much a good poll affects the mind and spirit of a politician," Lieberman joked during a lunch-hour stop at Rajun Cajun, a Hartford restaurant.

Lamont dismissed the shifting numbers when he addressed reporters Monday evening in front of his downtown New Haven office. "I don't think they mean anything," he said as a group of young supporters cheered him. "I think we're going to do just fine."

An Aug. 3 Quinnipiac poll showed Lamont with a lead of 54 percent to 41 percent over the three-term incumbent and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, a dramatic turnabout from a June survey that showed Lamont trailing Lieberman 55 percent to 40 percent.

In the latest survey, the senator -- who has vowed to run as an independent if he loses the primary -- made his biggest gains with women, who had previously preferred Lamont but now split their support between the two candidates. Lamont continued to lead among higher-income and higher-educated groups, and with liberals and male voters.

The poll had some good news for Lamont. Virtually unknown in the state a few months ago, the Greenwich cable television entrepreneur spent nearly $4 million through late July, much of it from his personal fortune, to introduce himself to voters, including through a series of clever television ads. The Quinnipiac survey showed that Democrats hold a favorable impression of Lamont across demographic groups, with lower negatives than Lieberman.

Also, just 10 percent of voters surveyed said they could change their minds before the polls open -- leaving a small pool of potential Lieberman conversions.

"The momentum has shifted to Lieberman, but Lamont is still ahead," said Douglas Schwartz, Quinnipiac poll director. "This race is still unsettled."

A big mystery is how many voters will show up Tuesday. The state's last hotly contested Democratic primary, in the 1994 governor's race, drew 25 percent of eligible voters. Given the high profile of the Lieberman-Lamont contest, some state election officials predict the figure Tuesday could top 30 percent.

As evidence, they point to the nearly 13,500 unaffiliated voters who have registered as Democrats since May 1 so they can vote in the primary. An additional 13,700 new voters registered with the party during the same period. "There's definitely a sign of interest in the election," Schwartz said.

Unaffiliated voters make up the largest bloc in the Connecticut electorate, and they tend to be moderates, or traditional Lieberman supporters. But Lamont's team has courted members of the unaffiliated group who oppose the war, which is deeply unpopular in Connecticut. "Both sides are encouraging the switches," said Lamont campaign manager Tom Swan.

Both camps worked phone lines and canvassed neighborhoods into the evening. One particular target was black voters, a numerically small but potentially significant voting group. One theory for Lamont's slipping support was that he has been damaged by Lieberman radio ads on black stations hitting the challenger for his longtime membership, terminated this year, at an exclusive Greenwich country club.

The Lamont campaign responded by seeking out rap artists to phone black stations and remind listeners that Lieberman had once targeted rap music for promoting violence and drug use. Both candidates spent recent Sundays visiting black churches, and they have included numerous high-profile black politicians and community leaders in their entourages.

In a curious final twist, Lamont over the weekend stopped notifying reporters of all his campaign appearances -- an unusual closing strategy, and one that contrasted sharply with Lieberman's high-profile 10-day bus tour.

For instance, Lamont attended six black church services on Sunday morning, Swan said, but announced none of them, although a high-profile guest, the Rev. Al Sharpton, joined him at one stop. Swan said Lamont decided the crush of cameras and reporters that trailed him everywhere had become too disruptive. By the final days, both campaigns had grown to presidential primary scale.

"I've been going around the state doing my thing privately," Lamont explained to reporters. Shrugging off skeptics, he added: "If I put much stock in conventional wisdom, I wouldn't be in this race right now."