NOAA Curtails Hurricane Forecast

Predicted Total Is Still Above Average

MIAMI, Aug. 8 -- The 2006 hurricane season -- so far quiet -- has fallen far behind last year's record for tropical storm activity, but scientists on Tuesday issued a prediction that this year will nonetheless be above average, with seven to nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin.

In the kind of season that is anticipated, an average of two or three hurricanes make landfall in the United States, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

"I don't want anyone to focus on the numbers," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. "It only takes one hurricane to make it a really bad year."

The prediction, while still threatening, slightly downgrades the predicted hurricane activity from the seasonal outlook the agency issued in May, in which eight to 10 hurricanes were foreseen.

Some scientists have suggested that the recent intensity of hurricanes may be an outcome of global warming. But Gerry Bell, lead meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said "the work done so far doesn't allow us" to determine how much storm activity is due to global warming and how much is the result of a long-recognized fluctuation in hurricane activity created by the "multi-decadal signal."

The multi-decadal signal, in which weather conditions become conducive to hurricanes, is believed to have led to the uptick in Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.

The long-term forecasts of tropical storms are used by emergency managers. They are also reviewed by insurers, who have in recent years doubled premiums for properties in some coastal areas and refused to renew policies in others.

"It's not a time for complacency," said FEMA Director R. David Paulison.

The seasonal forecasts are based on an analysis of sea-surface temperatures in areas where hurricanes form, as well as wind conditions and other factors.

The warmth in the ocean is, in essence, the fuel for hurricanes.

This year, ocean waters are a half a degree to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average. That likely will help generate above-average tropical storm activity, but not as much as last year, when comparable ocean temperatures were two to three degrees warmer than average.

Three tropical storms have formed this year; last year, seven had formed during June and July.

Another key factor in the forecast is the strength of high-level winds that can inhibit hurricane formation. Essentially, strong shearing winds can blow apart incipient storms.

Wetter-than-predicted conditions over the Pacific Ocean have forced slightly stronger upper-level winds over the Caribbean, said Christopher Landsea of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, making the weather this year less amenable to hurricane formation than last year.

Still, forecasters predict an above-average season, with 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine hurricanes and three to four major hurricanes.

Those predictions fall in line with a report issued last week by researchers at Colorado State University. They predicted 15 tropical storms (the average is 9.6); seven hurricanes (the average is 5.9); and three major hurricanes (the average is 2.3). It also reported that there is a 73 percent chance that a major hurricane -- Category 3 or greater -- will hit the United States.

Paulison and the NOAA scientists used the announcement to warn residents of coastal areas to prepare before a storm hits. They said that although the government can help, residents who fared best in last year's hurricanes were those who had made adequate preparations.