Israelis Confront 'New Kind of War'

The Israeli military scuttled a program several years ago to develop defenses against primitive rocketry, deciding the effort was too expensive and might not work, according to Frisch.

Instead, Israel Defense Forces aircraft, drones and surveillance systems have been trying to spot the elusive rocket launchers, usually after the rockets have been fired and the portable launchers have been driven away by Hezbollah fighters.

Just as suicide bombers packed their explosive devices with pieces of shrapnel and ball bearings to increase their potency, many of Hezbollah's warheads have been filled with bullets and tiny metal balls that augment their destructive power when they hit humans, buildings or automobiles, according to police investigators who have examined the rocket debris.

"These missiles are very inaccurate," said Martin Van Creveld, a prominent Israeli military historian who teaches at Hebrew University. The deaths of 12 reserve soldiers lounging in a parking lot in the border town of Kfar Giladi on Sunday "was a pure accident," he said. "It might have landed anywhere else."

Forty-eight people have died in the rocket attacks -- 36 civilians and 12 soldiers, according to the Israeli military.

The Israeli military has "not been able to break their spirit, yet," said Van Creveld, referring to Hezbollah. "Unless it is stopped diplomatically, it could go on for a long time."

Analysts and the Israeli military estimate that Hezbollah had anywhere from 12,000 to 16,000 rockets. The military estimates that Hezbollah has fired nearly 3,500 rockets into Israel -- most of them the medium- and shorter-range varieties. Those projectiles range from 302mm rockets weighing 165 pounds that can fly up to 68 miles to a Haseb rocket weighing 14 pounds that can travel up to seven miles, according to the Israeli National Police.

Steinberg estimated that Hezbollah had 1,000 to 1,500 rocket launchers before the conflict began, many of them hidden or kept underground. After four weeks of aerial bombardments and ground skirmishes, the Israeli military estimates that it has destroyed about 300 launchers, a spokesman said.

"To find all the needles in the haystack is going to be difficult," Steinberg said.

"Experience shows that air force is not good enough to deal with rocket-launching," said Eran Duvdevani, a military operations specialist at Israel's International Policy Institute for Counter Terrorism and an instructor for Israeli military officer training programs. "There is no alternative but to use ground forces."

The debate over sending Israeli ground troops into southern Lebanon was one of the most emotional of the conflict.

Military officials feared significant casualties, and political leaders worried about the impact of the deaths in a nation where military service is mandatory for men and women.

"The Israeli army didn't move quickly and decisively as it should have," said Frisch, the military analyst. "The big debate is the change in ethos. Now soldiers' lives have become more precious than losses in the rear."