Jury Out on Lieberman Effect

"Ned Lamont's victory in the Democrat primary for U.S. Senate represents a major setback for National Democrats," Carl Forti, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a memo.

But Democrats pointed to numbers to bolster their contention that, ultimately, the Lamont-Lieberman rematch will play to their advantage. Lamont's campaign brought tens of thousands of new voters onto the registration rolls, and the record-shattering 43-percent turnout for a primary election indicated an energized electorate.

"The turnout factor, the registration factor -- these are things that cannot be underestimated," said Joe Courtney, who is challenging Simmons.

Chris Murphy said he initially feared that a three-way Senate contest between Lamont, Lieberman and Schlesinger would be a dangerous distraction from his contest to unseat Johnson, a 12-term Republican with a powerful perch near the top of the Ways and Means Committee. But after watching the events of Tuesday, he decided that the Senate race will activate more voters eager for change.

Rep. John B. Larson (D-Conn.) said: "Democrats are engaged. Change is in the atmosphere. People have had enough."

Lieberman will try to bring out independent voters who would not have participated in a Democratic primary. In a poll of independent voters, two-thirds recently said they view Lieberman favorably, a better showing than he had among Democrats and Republicans, Dautrich said.

But, Dautrich added, those same Connecticut independents virulently oppose the war in Iraq and strongly disfavor Bush. They may vote for Lieberman out of loyalty or affection, but that does not mean they will vote for the Republican House member on the ballot.

Indeed, Connecticut voters are well-practiced at splitting their tickets between parties. Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, said that in the last gubernatorial election, half the state's women voted for Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell, then voted for the Democratic House candidate.

Said Farrell: "The voters in this state are informed voters. I think they can distinguish between all of us."