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Bellwethers: Key Issues in the Battle for Congress

Key Issue» The GOP in the Northeast

Race Republican Leans Democrat
Pa. Senate Sen. Rick Santorum (i)     » Bob Casey
Pa. 6th district Rep. Jim Gerlach (i)   ?   Lois Murphy
Pa. 7th district Rep. Curt Weldon (i)     » Joe Sestak
Conn. 2nd district Rep. Rob Simmons (i)   ?   Joe Courtney
N.Y. 24th district Ray Meier     » Michael Arcuri

KEY: (i) Incumbent | « Leans Republican | » Leans Democratic | ? Tossup

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For GOP, Bad Gets Worse in Northeast

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"Political conversation has become so polarized, so emotional," said Susan Bolton, a computer professional in the district. "When people liken Bush to Hitler, I see a lot of similarities myself." Bolton has stopped discussing the race here with Republican friends and said she will definitely turn out to vote for Murphy.

Others are unfazed. "It is the lesser of two evils," said Jerry Cobb, a Republican retiree who has lived in the district for 45 years. "I am not a Gerlach man, but I will probably vote for him" because of -- not in spite of -- his ties to Bush. "They are having a good old time bashing George Bush," but it won't work on him, he said. Most voters interviewed in the area seemed unaware of the race -- or uninterested.

The Gerlach campaign calls the Democratic candidate "liberal Lois" and warns she will raise taxes if elected. Amy Bonitatibus, who took a leave from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's office to assist Murphy, said the charge, while not true, "resonates" with many voters here. Gerlach, who served in the state House and Senate before winning his seat in 2002, has said the two biggest issues are gas prices and immigration -- two areas in which he highlights differences with Bush.

Still, for Democrats to pick up the 15 seats needed to take control of the House, they may need the discontent to spread beyond the suburbs and into the conservative towns and rural communities of Upstate New York.

Meier, 53, is struggling to hold a seat that has gone Republican for a half-century. New York's 24th is not the kind of suburban, well-to-do country that is causing problems for the GOP elsewhere. It is more like the industrial Midwest, where once-vibrant cities bleed jobs, population and money as the economy moves away from factory dominance.

Rep. Sherwood L. Boehlert, an influential moderate Republican who chairs the Science Committee, has represented the district since 1982. Several times, he beat back conservative primary challenges by convincing voters that his ability to win funding for pet projects -- such as turning Griffiss Air Force Base into a technology center -- was more important than such social issues as his support of abortion rights.

In a normal environment, Boehlert's decision to retire this year might open the door for a more conservative Republican, such as Meier, to lock down the district, where Democrats have 40,000 fewer registered voters. But Meier said there is nothing normal about 2006: "It's a challenging year as a Republican."

In a break with the GOP election-year strategy, Meier said he is largely avoiding wedge issues such as same-sex marriage that party leaders are promoting in Washington and playing up his ability to compromise and create jobs. "People here are not ideologues," Meier said.

Michael A. Arcuri, 47, is the district attorney from Utica, the district's largest city in a county that accounts for about 30 percent of its voters. Handsome and articulate, Arcuri is running a campaign seemingly focused on one thing: tethering Meier to an unpopular Bush and Republican Party establishment. "He is one of the extremists," said Arcuri, between sips of coffee at a Friendly's restaurant.

To emphasize this point, Arcuri is running as a "Boehlert Democrat," highlighting how he shares the retiring GOP congressman's views on abortion, stem cells, tax cuts and energy policies, which are not coincidentally different than Bush's. "There is a huge difference between Boehlert and Meier," Arcuri said.

Reba L. Taylor, a former Democrat who serves as the Republican mayor of Dryden, said there is widespread frustration with Republicans in the area. "They have been a complacent, ruling party too long," she said. "A lot of them have not been touchable for a long time."

But Taylor said she is sticking with Meier because she believes he is the best person to help win funding and assistance for her town and the district.

Said Boehlert: "It will be more of a challenge than in the past, but it won't be insurmountable."


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